NVDAx Trades at 28bps Discount with 69% Supply Concentration
Tokenized NVIDIA exposure shows negative premium and high liquidity turnover amid stable supply and concentrated ownership
Summary
NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to NVDA with $3.15M daily volume representing 107% of liquidity. Supply remains stable at 321,578 tokens while top 5 holders control 69.15% of circulation across 30 DEX pools.
Why it matters
Understanding premium dynamics and holder concentration is critical for assessing the reliability of tokenized equity as synthetic exposure.
Key observations
NVDAx trades at -28.2bps versus the NVDA reference price.
premium_bps = -28.2 bps (baseline -10.684)
Circulating supply is 321,577.824 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).
supply_ui_amount = 321,577.824 tokens (baseline 321,577.824)
Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,931,292 across 30 pools.
liquidity_usd = 2,931,292 USD (baseline 2,943,872)
The five largest token accounts hold 69.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).
top5_account_share = 0.692 ratio (baseline 0.692)
24h DEX volume of $3,146,014 implies 1.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.
volume_24h_usd = 3,146,014 USD
Thesis
The persistent discount and concentrated supply structure create potential volatility risks despite active trading and adequate liquidity.
Claims
- Factconfidence 100%
NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to the NVDA reference price, with token price at $217.04 versus reference at $217.655.
- Factconfidence 100%
The token's 24-hour price change is -0.68%, representing a net decline over the period.
- Calculationconfidence 100%
24-hour DEX volume of $3.146M represents 107% of current pooled liquidity ($2.931M), indicating active capital rotation.
- Factconfidence 100%
Circulating supply is stable at 321,577.824 tokens, with negligible variation across the 3.8-hour baseline period.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The negative premium falls within the observed baseline range of -62.2 to +31.4 bps, suggesting typical market volatility rather than structural mispricing.
Would falsify this: premium_bps remaining persistently below -50 bps for extended periods significant deviation beyond historical range
- Factconfidence 100%
The five largest holders control 69.15% of supply, a concentration that has decreased marginally from 69.34% earlier in the baseline.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Hourly transaction count of 628 sits in the lower quartile of the baseline range (456-2,297), suggesting current activity is relatively subdued despite healthy 24-hour volume of 37,465 transactions.
Would falsify this: txns_h1 increasing above 1,000 txns_24h showing significant upward trend
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The combination of concentrated holdings and high liquidity turnover may create non-linear price impacts during periods of coordinated buying or selling by large holders.
Would falsify this: observed price stability during large transactions top5_holder_share decreasing below 60%
Evidence ledger
4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.
- onchainreliability: primary
NVDAx token supply at slot 438655101(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:7d12a9af50579f4362af188a4405e6117887c321c1562820f24e5764244e0964
- onchainreliability: primary
NVDAx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:97e929abead4fd2e138c59e0b471cf15b1f0068baa4fad8dc005ae714874b6fe
- marketreliability: high
NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)
sha256:d1cde305cc25a9e530f5a152adf82424b4e9b10f5165750b2dd6e01a07d7ec97
- marketreliability: high
NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price(Jupiter price service)
sha256:ddd8f80a3e2779b148322901ea603ac7704f89b15f03f7b7a3959ff4fc77f891
Methodology
Methods
- Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
- Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
- Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
- Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines
Exclusions and transformations
- UTC clock normalization
- Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
- Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed
Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset
Confidence rationale
Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).
Limitations
- Analysis limited to 3.8-hour baseline; longer-term premium trends unknown
- Holder identities and intentions not disclosed; concentration metric includes pools
- No visibility into off-chain arbitrage mechanisms that could correct premium
- Reference price source and update frequency not specified
- Single asset snapshot; broader market conditions not considered
- Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
Related research
This object elsewhere
sha256:0e864e17146935ca7d9a1a9112c5cb0a621abb4ddfea800e9d5458ce30fbe6bc
This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.
Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.