{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZS0E16MR97DS7XW",
  "slug": "nvdax-trades-at-28bps-discount-with-69-supply-concentration-2026-08-11-1",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "NVDAx Trades at 28bps Discount with 69% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized NVIDIA exposure shows negative premium and high liquidity turnover amid stable supply and concentrated ownership",
  "summary": "NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to NVDA with $3.15M daily volume representing 107% of liquidity. Supply remains stable at 321,578 tokens while top 5 holders control 69.15% of circulation across 30 DEX pools.",
  "thesis": "The persistent discount and concentrated supply structure create potential volatility risks despite active trading and adequate liquidity.",
  "whyItMatters": "Understanding premium dynamics and holder concentration is critical for assessing the reliability of tokenized equity as synthetic exposure.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_nvdax",
      "symbol": "NVDAx",
      "name": "NVIDIA xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "referenceTicker": "NVDA",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "nvidia",
    "premium-discount",
    "liquidity",
    "concentration-risk",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-11T14:11:06.593Z",
    "end": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "NVDAx trades at -28.2bps versus the NVDA reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -28.2,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -10.68416419416173
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.824 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 321577.82437732,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 321577.82437732,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,931,292 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 2931292,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 2943872
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 69.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.691527701282296,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.691527701282296
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,146,014 implies 1.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3146014,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 438655101",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:04.670Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:7d12a9af50579f4362af188a4405e6117887c321c1562820f24e5764244e0964",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:06.847Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:97e929abead4fd2e138c59e0b471cf15b1f0068baa4fad8dc005ae714874b6fe",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.069Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d1cde305cc25a9e530f5a152adf82424b4e9b10f5165750b2dd6e01a07d7ec97",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ddd8f80a3e2779b148322901ea603ac7704f89b15f03f7b7a3959ff4fc77f891",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to the NVDA reference price, with token price at $217.04 versus reference at $217.655.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change is -0.68%, representing a net decline over the period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $3.146M represents 107% of current pooled liquidity ($2.931M), indicating active capital rotation.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is stable at 321,577.824 tokens, with negligible variation across the 3.8-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The negative premium falls within the observed baseline range of -62.2 to +31.4 bps, suggesting typical market volatility rather than structural mispricing.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps remaining persistently below -50 bps for extended periods",
        "significant deviation beyond historical range"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The five largest holders control 69.15% of supply, a concentration that has decreased marginally from 69.34% earlier in the baseline.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 628 sits in the lower quartile of the baseline range (456-2,297), suggesting current activity is relatively subdued despite healthy 24-hour volume of 37,465 transactions.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "txns_h1 increasing above 1,000",
        "txns_24h showing significant upward trend"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The combination of concentrated holdings and high liquidity turnover may create non-linear price impacts during periods of coordinated buying or selling by large holders.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "observed price stability during large transactions",
        "top5_holder_share decreasing below 60%"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.84,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Analysis limited to 3.8-hour baseline; longer-term premium trends unknown",
    "Holder identities and intentions not disclosed; concentration metric includes pools",
    "No visibility into off-chain arbitrage mechanisms that could correct premium",
    "Reference price source and update frequency not specified",
    "Single asset snapshot; broader market conditions not considered",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZS0ARZFB1GHRDH0",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:36.855Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:53.314Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:8482cc44f915e85a587e07578b441fd20f3673930063fb0fed8442352ba9387d",
    "contentHash": "sha256:0e864e17146935ca7d9a1a9112c5cb0a621abb4ddfea800e9d5458ce30fbe6bc"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/nvdax-trades-at-28bps-discount-with-69-supply-concentration-2026-08-11-1",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:54.100Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:54.100Z"
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  "distribution": []
}