{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZS0E16MR97DS7XW", "slug": "nvdax-trades-at-28bps-discount-with-69-supply-concentration-2026-08-11-1", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "NVDAx Trades at 28bps Discount with 69% Supply Concentration", "dek": "Tokenized NVIDIA exposure shows negative premium and high liquidity turnover amid stable supply and concentrated ownership", "summary": "NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to NVDA with $3.15M daily volume representing 107% of liquidity. Supply remains stable at 321,578 tokens while top 5 holders control 69.15% of circulation across 30 DEX pools.", "thesis": "The persistent discount and concentrated supply structure create potential volatility risks despite active trading and adequate liquidity.", "whyItMatters": "Understanding premium dynamics and holder concentration is critical for assessing the reliability of tokenized equity as synthetic exposure.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_nvdax", "symbol": "NVDAx", "name": "NVIDIA xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "referenceTicker": "NVDA", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "tokenized-equity", "nvidia", "premium-discount", "liquidity", "concentration-risk", "market-structure" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-11T14:11:06.593Z", "end": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "NVDAx trades at -28.2bps versus the NVDA reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -28.2, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -10.68416419416173 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.824 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 321577.82437732, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 321577.82437732, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,931,292 across 30 pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 2931292, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 2943872 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 69.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.691527701282296, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.691527701282296 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,146,014 implies 1.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 3146014, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 438655101", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:04.670Z", "dataHash": "sha256:7d12a9af50579f4362af188a4405e6117887c321c1562820f24e5764244e0964", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:06.847Z", "dataHash": "sha256:97e929abead4fd2e138c59e0b471cf15b1f0068baa4fad8dc005ae714874b6fe", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "sourceId": "dexscreener", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.069Z", "dataHash": "sha256:d1cde305cc25a9e530f5a152adf82424b4e9b10f5165750b2dd6e01a07d7ec97", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-11T18:11:07.174Z", "dataHash": "sha256:ddd8f80a3e2779b148322901ea603ac7704f89b15f03f7b7a3959ff4fc77f891", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "NVDAx trades at a 28.2 basis point discount to the NVDA reference price, with token price at $217.04 versus reference at $217.655.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change is -0.68%, representing a net decline over the period.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $3.146M represents 107% of current pooled liquidity ($2.931M), indicating active capital rotation.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "Circulating supply is stable at 321,577.824 tokens, with negligible variation across the 3.8-hour baseline period.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The negative premium falls within the observed baseline range of -62.2 to +31.4 bps, suggesting typical market volatility rather than structural mispricing.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "premium_bps remaining persistently below -50 bps for extended periods", "significant deviation beyond historical range" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The five largest holders control 69.15% of supply, a concentration that has decreased marginally from 69.34% earlier in the baseline.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 628 sits in the lower quartile of the baseline range (456-2,297), suggesting current activity is relatively subdued despite healthy 24-hour volume of 37,465 transactions.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "txns_h1 increasing above 1,000", "txns_24h showing significant upward trend" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The combination of concentrated holdings and high liquidity turnover may create non-linear price impacts during periods of coordinated buying or selling by large holders.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181104670Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-11T181106847Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-11T181107069Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-11T181107174Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "observed price stability during large transactions", "top5_holder_share decreasing below 60%" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.84, "band": "high", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.24, "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "cross_venue_agreement", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "Analysis limited to 3.8-hour baseline; longer-term premium trends unknown", "Holder identities and intentions not disclosed; concentration metric includes pools", "No visibility into off-chain arbitrage mechanisms that could correct premium", "Reference price source and update frequency not specified", "Single asset snapshot; broader market conditions not considered", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZS0ARZFB1GHRDH0", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openrouter.ai", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:36.855Z" }, { "provider": "openrouter.ai", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:53.314Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:8482cc44f915e85a587e07578b441fd20f3673930063fb0fed8442352ba9387d", "contentHash": "sha256:0e864e17146935ca7d9a1a9112c5cb0a621abb4ddfea800e9d5458ce30fbe6bc" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/nvdax-trades-at-28bps-discount-with-69-supply-concentration-2026-08-11-1", "publishedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:54.100Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-11T18:12:54.100Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-11T20:55:03.598Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZS0E16MR97DS7XW", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }