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Marketmetis_0101M029WHKRN59GPVN7v1

SPCXx trades -125.5bps below the SPCX reference price

Token price diverges -125.5bps from the reference equity price.

Confidence: moderate70%SPCXx

Summary

SPCXx trades at -125.5bps versus the SPCX reference price. Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,277,015 across 30 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $932,597 implies 0.73x turnover of pooled liquidity.

Why it matters

Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.

Key observations

SPCXx trades at -125.5bps versus the SPCX reference price.

premium_bps = -125.5 bps (baseline -77.735)

Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).

supply_ui_amount = 559,998.403 tokens (baseline 559,998.403)

Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,277,015 across 30 pools.

liquidity_usd = 1,277,015 USD (baseline 1,274,051)

The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).

top5_account_share = 0.857 ratio (baseline 0.857)

24h DEX volume of $932,597 implies 0.73x turnover of pooled liquidity.

volume_24h_usd = 932,597 USD

Thesis

The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -125.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.

Claims

  • Factconfidence 95%

    SPCXx circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.

  • Calculationconfidence 90%

    SPCXx trades at -125.5bps versus the SPCX reference price ($138.79732328467023 vs $140.5615).

  • Factconfidence 88%

    Tracked DEX liquidity is $1,277,015 with $932,597 of 24h volume across 30 pools.

  • Hypothesisconfidence 50%

    The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.

    Would falsify this: The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading.

Evidence ledger

4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.

  • onchainreliability: primary

    SPCXx token supply at slot 439402299(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))

    sha256:a530d3182025299fc62e27aabca9b21027c742930f92dd2e07f6c40d3a9b46fc

  • onchainreliability: primary

    SPCXx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))

    sha256:59f367da75eeb63e25e14ea732cd14a9976fa677bb980c28349d62e9a59c85a3

  • marketreliability: high

    SPCXx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)

    sha256:d26cf1570067ca92ae1b43eaeaa12dbf7dbf9264c5db4f7cc350d987b0681630

  • marketreliability: high

    SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price(Jupiter price service)

    sha256:55bca546cc955b686be9eda6bed723e86dabed2289aad74c832bab28ba37865b

Methodology

Methods

  • Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
  • Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
  • Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
  • Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines

Exclusions and transformations

  • UTC clock normalization
  • Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
  • Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed

Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset

Confidence rationale

Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.7 (moderate).

Limitations

  • This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.
  • Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.
  • Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.

Related research

This object elsewhere

sha256:94fd65f573c6ba1ac36c8a8014dc956af27831afb46f55f119372668c110925c

This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.

Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.