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Marketmetis_0101M02DAG4KCH12WJAEv1

SPCXx trades -151.2bps below the SPCX reference price

Token price diverges -151.2bps from the reference equity price.

Confidence: moderate64%SPCXx

Summary

SPCXx trades at -151.2bps versus the SPCX reference price. Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $769,035 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $2,412,724 implies 3.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.

Why it matters

Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.

Key observations

SPCXx trades at -151.2bps versus the SPCX reference price.

premium_bps = -151.2 bps (baseline -89.474)

Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).

supply_ui_amount = 559,998.403 tokens (baseline 559,998.403)

Tracked DEX liquidity totals $769,035 across ? pools.

liquidity_usd = 769,035 USD (baseline 775,945)

The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).

top5_account_share = 0.857 ratio (baseline 0.857)

24h DEX volume of $2,412,724 implies 3.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.

volume_24h_usd = 2,412,724 USD

Thesis

The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -151.2bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.

Claims

  • Factconfidence 95%

    SPCXx circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.

  • Calculationconfidence 90%

    SPCXx trades at -151.2bps versus the SPCX reference price ($138.43674049238106 vs $140.5615).

  • Factconfidence 88%

    Tracked DEX liquidity is $769,035 with $2,412,724 of 24h volume across 0 pools.

  • Hypothesisconfidence 50%

    The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.

    Would falsify this: The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading.

Evidence ledger

4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.

Methodology

Methods

  • Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
  • Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
  • Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
  • Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines

Exclusions and transformations

  • UTC clock normalization
  • Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
  • Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed

Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset

Confidence rationale

Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).

Limitations

  • This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.
  • Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.
  • Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
  • Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8.

Related research

This object elsewhere

sha256:eadc9c32f866d9c333bd88972fd978441e2fb5ac81c58840bc82930ba9f41002

This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.

Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.