NVDAx Trades at 29bps Discount Amid Stable Supply and High Concentration
Tokenized NVIDIA stock derivative shows persistent discount to reference price, with 70% supply held by top five accounts and low liquidity turnover.
Summary
NVDAx trades at a 28.8 basis point discount to NVDA reference price amid stable supply and high ownership concentration. The $2.95M liquidity pool supports $983K in 24h volume (0.33x turnover), while top five holders control 70.1% of supply. Premium volatility over 11.5 hours ranged from -18.3 to +35.8 bps.
Why it matters
High ownership concentration and persistent discount indicate potential liquidity and pricing inefficiencies for institutional participants.
Key observations
NVDAx trades at -28.8bps versus the NVDA reference price.
premium_bps = -28.8 bps (baseline 5.549)
Circulating supply is 321,577.794 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).
supply_ui_amount = 321,577.794 tokens (baseline 321,577.794)
Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,952,384 across 30 pools.
liquidity_usd = 2,952,384 USD (baseline 2,950,332)
The five largest token accounts hold 70.1% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).
top5_account_share = 0.701 ratio (baseline 0.701)
24h DEX volume of $983,947 implies 0.33x turnover of pooled liquidity.
volume_24h_usd = 983,947 USD
Thesis
NVDAx exhibits structural discount and concentration risk despite stable token supply.
Claims
- Factconfidence 100%
NVDAx trades at a discount of 28.8 basis points to the NVDA reference price.
- Factconfidence 100%
Circulating supply has remained effectively unchanged over the past 11.5 hours, decreasing by less than 0.00005% from 321,577.81 to 321,577.79 tokens.
- Calculationconfidence 100%
The 24-hour DEX volume of $983,947 represents 0.33 times the total pooled liquidity of $2.95 million.
- Factconfidence 100%
The five largest token accounts hold 70.1% of circulating supply, indicating high ownership concentration.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The negative premium may indicate insufficient buy-side liquidity or aggressive selling pressure relative to the reference asset.
Would falsify this: A sustained reversal to positive premium without changes in liquidity or volume Evidence of large buy orders executing at par or premium
- Factconfidence 100%
The token recorded 257 transactions in the most recent hour and 12,353 transactions over the past 24 hours.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Despite trading at a discount to reference, the token price increased 1.77% over 24 hours, suggesting the discount widened as the reference price rose faster than the token price.
Would falsify this: Reference price declining while token price remains stable Token price increasing at same rate as reference price
Evidence ledger
4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.
- onchainreliability: primary
NVDAx token supply at slot 438991188(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:8d2dbd3d9a9d9bf654c557718a0dac0a35933434728d5990a5671b34d1d832be
- onchainreliability: primary
NVDAx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:643459c0253edd2765d324a7ed81114740a648a6204a7fa530f96f5af52a5945
- marketreliability: high
NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)
sha256:12c727b243967252886a684f12eab70ed7389267934cb4ad7b90775c5bf39aef
- marketreliability: high
NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price(Jupiter price service)
sha256:f84b6b2c6ddf313c3bd8488e5eaeff6f5a60c777158fa5a70f545e467940f43e
Methodology
Methods
- Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
- Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
- Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
- Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines
Exclusions and transformations
- UTC clock normalization
- Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
- Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed
Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset
Confidence rationale
Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.71 (moderate).
Limitations
- Premium calculation methodology relative to reference ticker not disclosed
- Top holder identities and purposes (e.g., market making vs. custody) unknown
- Liquidity distribution across 30 pools not granularly reported
- Reference price source and update frequency not specified
- No information on redemption mechanisms or arbitrage constraints
- Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
Related research
This object elsewhere
sha256:d4ad298b43b32d10eaee30abbdadfe2f9c29d7abd41ee03975ba85151ab2921b
This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.
Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.