{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZX6VYGT4N7Z6MJ2", "slug": "nvdax-trades-at-29bps-discount-amid-stable-supply-and-high-concentration", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "NVDAx Trades at 29bps Discount Amid Stable Supply and High Concentration", "dek": "Tokenized NVIDIA stock derivative shows persistent discount to reference price, with 70% supply held by top five accounts and low liquidity turnover.", "summary": "NVDAx trades at a 28.8 basis point discount to NVDA reference price amid stable supply and high ownership concentration. The $2.95M liquidity pool supports $983K in 24h volume (0.33x turnover), while top five holders control 70.1% of supply. Premium volatility over 11.5 hours ranged from -18.3 to +35.8 bps.", "thesis": "NVDAx exhibits structural discount and concentration risk despite stable token supply.", "whyItMatters": "High ownership concentration and persistent discount indicate potential liquidity and pricing inefficiencies for institutional participants.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_nvdax", "symbol": "NVDAx", "name": "NVIDIA xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "referenceTicker": "NVDA", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "NVDAx", "premium-discount", "liquidity", "concentration-risk", "tokenized-equity", "market-structure", "basis-points", "DEX" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T21:21:06.617Z", "end": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "NVDAx trades at -28.8bps versus the NVDA reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -28.8, "unit": "bps", "baseline": 5.54879204539827 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.794 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 321577.79405064, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 321577.79405064, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,952,384 across 30 pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 2952384, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 2950332 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 70.1% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.7011721638498851, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.7011721638498851 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $983,947 implies 0.33x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 983947, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 438991188", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:04.227Z", "dataHash": "sha256:8d2dbd3d9a9d9bf654c557718a0dac0a35933434728d5990a5671b34d1d832be", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.608Z", "dataHash": "sha256:643459c0253edd2765d324a7ed81114740a648a6204a7fa530f96f5af52a5945", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "sourceId": "dexscreener", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.616Z", "dataHash": "sha256:12c727b243967252886a684f12eab70ed7389267934cb4ad7b90775c5bf39aef", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:06.650Z", "dataHash": "sha256:f84b6b2c6ddf313c3bd8488e5eaeff6f5a60c777158fa5a70f545e467940f43e", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "NVDAx trades at a discount of 28.8 basis points to the NVDA reference price.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "Circulating supply has remained effectively unchanged over the past 11.5 hours, decreasing by less than 0.00005% from 321,577.81 to 321,577.79 tokens.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $983,947 represents 0.33 times the total pooled liquidity of $2.95 million.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 70.1% of circulating supply, indicating high ownership concentration.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The negative premium may indicate insufficient buy-side liquidity or aggressive selling pressure relative to the reference asset.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "A sustained reversal to positive premium without changes in liquidity or volume", "Evidence of large buy orders executing at par or premium" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The token recorded 257 transactions in the most recent hour and 12,353 transactions over the past 24 hours.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "Despite trading at a discount to reference, the token price increased 1.77% over 24 hours, suggesting the discount widened as the reference price rose faster than the token price.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092104227Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T092106608Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T092106616Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T092106650Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Reference price declining while token price remains stable", "Token price increasing at same rate as reference price" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.71, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.71 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.24, "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "cross_venue_agreement", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_failures", "contribution": -0.15, "explanation": "1 claim(s) failed independent verification." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.04, "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "Premium calculation methodology relative to reference ticker not disclosed", "Top holder identities and purposes (e.g., market making vs. custody) unknown", "Liquidity distribution across 30 pools not granularly reported", "Reference price source and update frequency not specified", "No information on redemption mechanisms or arbitrage constraints", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZX6SQSAZ2K2GXE1", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T09:21:37.559Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T09:22:18.456Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:ffc98c595f878dd86c99f6fb1675253053bb0d266cf2d59d58954f1866d62c8a", "contentHash": "sha256:d4ad298b43b32d10eaee30abbdadfe2f9c29d7abd41ee03975ba85151ab2921b" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/nvdax-trades-at-29bps-discount-amid-stable-supply-and-high-concentration", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T09:22:19.290Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T09:22:19.290Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-13T11:28:44.465Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZX6VYGT4N7Z6MJ2", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }