HOODx Trades at 45bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration
Tokenized Robinhood equity shows notable premium divergence, extreme holder concentration, and low liquidity turnover over 11.7-hour tracking period.
Summary
HOODx trades at -45.3bps versus HOOD reference price with 94% of supply held by top 5 accounts. $479K liquidity across 19 pools generated only $42.8K 24h volume (0.09x turnover). Supply stable at 597,393 tokens. Premium volatility observed throughout 11.7-hour baseline.
Why it matters
Extreme holder concentration and low turnover suggest limited natural float, making the token vulnerable to manipulation and amplifying premium volatility. The persistent discount indicates ineffective arbitrage mechanisms.
Key observations
HOODx trades at -45.3bps versus the HOOD reference price.
premium_bps = -45.3 bps (baseline -22.448)
Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).
supply_ui_amount = 597,392.604 tokens (baseline 597,392.604)
Tracked DEX liquidity totals $479,448 across 19 pools.
liquidity_usd = 479,448 USD (baseline 480,052)
The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).
top5_account_share = 0.94 ratio (baseline 0.94)
24h DEX volume of $42,846 implies 0.09x turnover of pooled liquidity.
volume_24h_usd = 42,846 USD
Thesis
The token exhibits structural market inefficiencies: persistent discount to reference, extreme supply concentration limiting price discovery, and insufficient liquidity turnover indicating weak arbitrage activity.
Claims
- Factconfidence 100%
HOODx currently trades at a -45.3 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $99.46, with a DEX price of $99.35.
- Factconfidence 100%
The circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens, unchanged from the prior observation.
- Factconfidence 100%
The five largest token accounts control 93.9968% of total supply, indicating extreme concentration.
- Calculationconfidence 95%
24-hour DEX volume of $42,845.65 represents only 0.0895x turnover of the $479,447.61 pooled liquidity, indicating low capital efficiency.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Premium volatility has been significant throughout the 11.7-hour baseline, ranging from +40.1 bps to -57.9 bps, with the current -45.3 bps representing a 23 basis point widening from the baseline average of -22.4 bps.
Would falsify this: Baseline data insufficient to establish true range Single outlier skewing average
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The 94% supply concentration among top 5 holders suggests most liquidity is protocol-controlled or custodial, limiting natural float and price discovery mechanisms.
Would falsify this: Top holders are actively market-making Concentration includes locked or vesting tokens not in circulation
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Transaction activity shows 145 trades in the most recent hour versus 1,579 over 24 hours, suggesting non-uniform trading patterns with potential burst activity.
Would falsify this: Hourly sampling coincides with normal market open/close 24h count includes duplicate or wash trades
Evidence ledger
4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx token supply at slot 439219023(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:c7a237edbad7c0271dc52be17d1aa6f40e73990b03c938062759b7514743da09
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:c34504fa9037cb2d18b3d212cb8ad595fd1c307acbb7a9fdb40a58d00d2c9080
- marketreliability: high
HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)
sha256:eb9f838db5fe410decbb3f2d134dc934cff6241a5447d9cfd2b4a9f5424a47b9
- marketreliability: high
HOODx token price and HOOD reference price(Jupiter price service)
sha256:3ab7a26581bb17e9be446065a5d2417cd55129d0c57484640e3ac8952ca04910
Methodology
Methods
- Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
- Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
- Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
- Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines
Exclusions and transformations
- UTC clock normalization
- Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
- Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed
Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset
Confidence rationale
Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).
Limitations
- Baseline spans only 11.7 hours, insufficient for definitive trend analysis
- Top 5 holder composition unknown - may include protocol pools or custodians
- No data on order book depth beyond aggregate liquidity
- Reference price source methodology not disclosed
- Transaction counts may include non-economic trades or arbitrage loops
- Single snapshot may not capture intraday volatility patterns
- Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
Related research
This object elsewhere
sha256:8419626e633ce12b9a410cbd15d5f0c0fe0fe304dd6840fb453e2a3983ab4492
This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.
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