{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M0019RJ9B6HJN3TY",
  "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-45bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-1",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Trades at 45bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood equity shows notable premium divergence, extreme holder concentration, and low liquidity turnover over 11.7-hour tracking period.",
  "summary": "HOODx trades at -45.3bps versus HOOD reference price with 94% of supply held by top 5 accounts. $479K liquidity across 19 pools generated only $42.8K 24h volume (0.09x turnover). Supply stable at 597,393 tokens. Premium volatility observed throughout 11.7-hour baseline.",
  "thesis": "The token exhibits structural market inefficiencies: persistent discount to reference, extreme supply concentration limiting price discovery, and insufficient liquidity turnover indicating weak arbitrage activity.",
  "whyItMatters": "Extreme holder concentration and low turnover suggest limited natural float, making the token vulnerable to manipulation and amplifying premium volatility. The persistent discount indicates ineffective arbitrage mechanisms.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "HOODx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "supply-concentration",
    "liquidity-turnover",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "market-inefficiency",
    "arbitrage",
    "solana"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T23:31:06.108Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -45.3bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -45.3,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -22.447851743518218
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60441428,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60441428,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $479,448 across 19 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 479448,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 480052
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9399682145799211,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9399682145799211
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $42,846 implies 0.09x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 42846,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439219023",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.184Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c7a237edbad7c0271dc52be17d1aa6f40e73990b03c938062759b7514743da09",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.537Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c34504fa9037cb2d18b3d212cb8ad595fd1c307acbb7a9fdb40a58d00d2c9080",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.665Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:eb9f838db5fe410decbb3f2d134dc934cff6241a5447d9cfd2b4a9f5424a47b9",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:41:04.724Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:3ab7a26581bb17e9be446065a5d2417cd55129d0c57484640e3ac8952ca04910",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a -45.3 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $99.46, with a DEX price of $99.35.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens, unchanged from the prior observation.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 93.9968% of total supply, indicating extreme concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $42,845.65 represents only 0.0895x turnover of the $479,447.61 pooled liquidity, indicating low capital efficiency.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Premium volatility has been significant throughout the 11.7-hour baseline, ranging from +40.1 bps to -57.9 bps, with the current -45.3 bps representing a 23 basis point widening from the baseline average of -22.4 bps.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline data insufficient to establish true range",
        "Single outlier skewing average"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The 94% supply concentration among top 5 holders suggests most liquidity is protocol-controlled or custodial, limiting natural float and price discovery mechanisms.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Top holders are actively market-making",
        "Concentration includes locked or vesting tokens not in circulation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Transaction activity shows 145 trades in the most recent hour versus 1,579 over 24 hours, suggesting non-uniform trading patterns with potential burst activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104184Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T114104537Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T114104665Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T114104724Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Hourly sampling coincides with normal market open/close",
        "24h count includes duplicate or wash trades"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.84,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline spans only 11.7 hours, insufficient for definitive trend analysis",
    "Top 5 holder composition unknown - may include protocol pools or custodians",
    "No data on order book depth beyond aggregate liquidity",
    "Reference price source methodology not disclosed",
    "Transaction counts may include non-economic trades or arbitrage loops",
    "Single snapshot may not capture intraday volatility patterns",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M0016R0R9MK1M08X",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:42:28.642Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:42:43.062Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:9ae3144cc563a65c05d9b19da44a3b83b4ac1c282e8258654e7965998038b49b",
    "contentHash": "sha256:8419626e633ce12b9a410cbd15d5f0c0fe0fe304dd6840fb453e2a3983ab4492"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-45bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-1",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T11:42:43.785Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T11:42:43.785Z"
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  "distribution": []
}