HOODx Premium Spikes to 184bps Amid High Supply Concentration
Tokenized Robinhood stock derivative shows elevated premium and 94% supply control by top five accounts
Summary
HOODx trades at a 184.5 basis point premium to underlying HOOD stock with 94% of supply concentrated among top five holders. DEX liquidity of $439K supports $45.6K daily volume, while price sources diverge by 85bps.
Why it matters
High concentration among top holders may amplify price movements and premium volatility, particularly during low liquidity periods.
Key observations
HOODx trades at +184.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.
premium_bps = 184.5 bps (baseline 89.794)
Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).
supply_ui_amount = 597,392.603 tokens (baseline 597,392.603)
Tracked DEX liquidity totals $438,997 across 11 pools.
liquidity_usd = 438,997 USD (baseline 447,236)
The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).
top5_account_share = 0.94 ratio (baseline 0.94)
24h DEX volume of $45,628 implies 0.1x turnover of pooled liquidity.
volume_24h_usd = 45,628 USD
Thesis
Elevated premium and extreme supply concentration in HOODx create potential volatility risks despite modest trading activity.
Claims
- Factconfidence 100%
HOODx trades at a premium of 184.5 basis points above the HOOD reference price of $95.52.
- Factconfidence 100%
The top five token accounts control 93.96% of the 597,392.603 token supply.
- Calculationconfidence 100%
DEX liquidity totals $438,997 across 11 pools, with 24-hour volume of $45,628 representing 0.10x liquidity turnover.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
An 85 basis point spread exists between Jupiter's token price ($97.28) and the top DEX pool price ($96.46), indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or liquidity fragmentation.
Would falsify this: Price convergence within the hour Single dominant liquidity source emerges
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The current 184.5 bps premium represents a significant increase from the baseline average of approximately 40-50 bps observed over the prior 11.5 hours, though it remains below the period peak of 241.8 bps.
Would falsify this: Baseline data shows sustained premium levels above 180bps Current premium falls within one standard deviation of baseline mean
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The 94% supply concentration among top five holders may amplify price volatility and premium deviations during periods of low liquidity turnover.
Would falsify this: Top holders demonstrate passive holding behavior over 30 days Premium remains stable despite supply concentration Liquidity turnover increases above 0.5x
- Factconfidence 100%
Hourly transactions increased to 26 in the current period from 16 in the prior hour, while 24-hour transactions total 1,878.
Evidence ledger
4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx token supply at slot 439374903(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:263dfff2da6914efe9fa3913ec24fe00662197aca6d3d3a21da9f4ab1a270407
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:f6bfc6ace686c460ba99d48bd38698af6b43f08e3691ffd3d7b4ff90ea69ea57
- marketreliability: high
HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)
sha256:6065c462a8a6a1fda14b2b745d9653beb9be615d488583b698137ab6216af055
- marketreliability: high
HOODx token price and HOOD reference price(Jupiter price service)
sha256:c2f13df1f77fedd651bb91f516c0df0039d51adb4e9e32c02066717428342d0e
Methodology
Methods
- Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
- Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
- Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
- Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines
Exclusions and transformations
- UTC clock normalization
- Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
- Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed
Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset
Confidence rationale
Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.66 (moderate).
Limitations
- Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, limiting trend validation
- Supply concentration metric includes pool accounts, potentially overstating true holder concentration
- Price discrepancy between sources may reflect different pool compositions rather than actionable arbitrage
- Low liquidity turnover may not capture off-market or OTC trading activity
- Hourly transaction counts exhibit high variance (13-136 in baseline), limiting predictive reliability
- Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
Related research
This object elsewhere
sha256:6dff4691c397080ebda5cf6ee74fd41740a9a470886075334caebf5fc6c6d8a8
This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.
Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.