{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101M01Z513D4SVNYAER", "slug": "hoodx-premium-spikes-to-184bps-amid-high-supply-concentration-2026-08-15", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Premium Spikes to 184bps Amid High Supply Concentration", "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood stock derivative shows elevated premium and 94% supply control by top five accounts", "summary": "HOODx trades at a 184.5 basis point premium to underlying HOOD stock with 94% of supply concentrated among top five holders. DEX liquidity of $439K supports $45.6K daily volume, while price sources diverge by 85bps.", "thesis": "Elevated premium and extreme supply concentration in HOODx create potential volatility risks despite modest trading activity.", "whyItMatters": "High concentration among top holders may amplify price movements and premium volatility, particularly during low liquidity periods.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "HOODx", "premium", "supply-concentration", "liquidity", "volatility", "tokenized-equity" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z", "end": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at +184.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 184.5, "unit": "bps", "baseline": 89.79424642705784 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60336316, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60336316, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $438,997 across 11 pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 438997, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 447236 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.939636959897194, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.939636959897194 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $45,628 implies 0.1x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 45628, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439374903", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:04.728Z", "dataHash": "sha256:263dfff2da6914efe9fa3913ec24fe00662197aca6d3d3a21da9f4ab1a270407", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.047Z", "dataHash": "sha256:f6bfc6ace686c460ba99d48bd38698af6b43f08e3691ffd3d7b4ff90ea69ea57", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "sourceId": "dexscreener", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.054Z", "dataHash": "sha256:6065c462a8a6a1fda14b2b745d9653beb9be615d488583b698137ab6216af055", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:05.087Z", "dataHash": "sha256:c2f13df1f77fedd651bb91f516c0df0039d51adb4e9e32c02066717428342d0e", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a premium of 184.5 basis points above the HOOD reference price of $95.52.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The top five token accounts control 93.96% of the 597,392.603 token supply.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "DEX liquidity totals $438,997 across 11 pools, with 24-hour volume of $45,628 representing 0.10x liquidity turnover.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "An 85 basis point spread exists between Jupiter's token price ($97.28) and the top DEX pool price ($96.46), indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or liquidity fragmentation.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Price convergence within the hour", "Single dominant liquidity source emerges" ] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The current 184.5 bps premium represents a significant increase from the baseline average of approximately 40-50 bps observed over the prior 11.5 hours, though it remains below the period peak of 241.8 bps.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Baseline data shows sustained premium levels above 180bps", "Current premium falls within one standard deviation of baseline mean" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The 94% supply concentration among top five holders may amplify price volatility and premium deviations during periods of low liquidity turnover.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Top holders demonstrate passive holding behavior over 30 days", "Premium remains stable despite supply concentration", "Liquidity turnover increases above 0.5x" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Hourly transactions increased to 26 in the current period from 16 in the prior hour, while 24-hour transactions total 1,878.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054104728Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T054105047Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T054105054Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T054105087Z" ], "confidence": 1 } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.66, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.66 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.24, "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "cross_venue_conflicts", "contribution": -0.1, "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "material", "limitations": [ "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, limiting trend validation", "Supply concentration metric includes pool accounts, potentially overstating true holder concentration", "Price discrepancy between sources may reflect different pool compositions rather than actionable arbitrage", "Low liquidity turnover may not capture off-market or OTC trading activity", "Hourly transaction counts exhibit high variance (13-136 in baseline), limiting predictive reliability", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01M01Z09KX6DRYZ7B8", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-15T05:41:41.563Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-15T05:43:39.574Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:16bab7e58d98dc6b01ed02b283afd87e0a8cb7e523d06eed6bfed3ee07d9305f", "contentHash": "sha256:6dff4691c397080ebda5cf6ee74fd41740a9a470886075334caebf5fc6c6d8a8" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-spikes-to-184bps-amid-high-supply-concentration-2026-08-15", "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T05:43:40.397Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T05:43:40.397Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T07:08:10.948Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101M01Z513D4SVNYAER", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }