HOODx Premium Widens to 47bps as Reference-Price Divergence Persists
The Robinhood xStock token trades at a 47.1bps premium to its equity reference, marking a 40bps expansion from baseline average and highlighting persistent price-discovery friction across 13 liquidity pools.
Summary
HOODx currently prices at $95.461 versus a $95.014 reference for HOOD equity, translating to a 47.1bps premium—substantially wider than the 6.7bps average observed across 20 prior snapshots spanning 9.3 hours. This divergence occurs alongside concentrated supply (94.4% held by top five accounts) and modest DEX liquidity of $458,561 across 13 pools, with 24-hour volume of $36,870 implying slow capital turnover. Price disagreement between Jupiter aggregation ($95.461) and top pool execution ($94.68) exceeds 80bps, indicating execution uncertainty for size. Transaction activity remains elevated with 119 trades in the prior hour and 3,097 over 24 hours, though the baseline shows substantial hourly variance ranging from 63 to 277 transactions.
Why it matters
For institutional participants, the 47bps premium represents a material deviation from fair-value assumptions in tokenized equity strategies, while execution slippage of 80bps between venues undermines confidence in on-chain price reliability as a hedge or replication vehicle.
Key observations
HOODx trades at +47.1bps versus the HOOD reference price.
premium_bps = 47.1 bps (baseline 6.72)
Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).
supply_ui_amount = 597,392.618 tokens (baseline 597,392.618)
Tracked DEX liquidity totals $458,561 across 13 pools.
liquidity_usd = 458,561 USD (baseline 458,561)
The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).
top5_account_share = 0.944 ratio (baseline 0.944)
24h DEX volume of $36,870 implies 0.08x turnover of pooled liquidity.
volume_24h_usd = 36,870 USD
Thesis
Persistent premium expansion and cross-venue price disagreement suggest HOODx market microstructure remains immature despite active trading, with concentrated ownership and thin liquidity amplifying execution risk for reference-price arbitrageurs.
Claims
- Factconfidence 95%
HOODx trades at a 47.07728768522031bps premium to the HOOD reference price of $95.014.
- Calculationconfidence 92%
The current 47.07728768522031bps premium represents a 40.36bps expansion from the 6.72007554539137bps baseline average observed across 20 prior snapshots.
Would falsify this: Baseline recalculation yields different average Premium_bps measurement methodology changed
- Factconfidence 97%
Top five token accounts hold 94.36445887142084% of circulating supply.
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The 82bps price gap between Jupiter ($95.46130014121235) and top pool execution ($94.68) indicates meaningful execution uncertainty for size.
Would falsify this: DEX price represents stale quote Top pool identification error
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
24-hour DEX volume of $36,869.54 against $458,561.23 in pooled liquidity yields 0.0804x turnover, suggesting limited price discovery depth.
Would falsify this: Volume attribution to wash trading Liquidity double-counting across pools
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Hourly transaction counts across the baseline vary substantially (63 to 277, standard deviation ~58), indicating activity patterns inconsistent with steady-state market making.
Would falsify this: Missing data points distort variance Hourly aggregation masks intraday regularity
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
Premium volatility over the 9.3-hour baseline (range: -52.07bps to +72.33bps) suggests arbitrage mechanisms fail to converge token and reference prices efficiently.
Would falsify this: Arbitrage costs fully explain persistence Reference price latency causes apparent divergence
- Hypothesisconfidence 50%
The 94.4% supply concentration among top five holders amplifies liquidity risk and reduces the effective float available for price discovery.
Would falsify this: Top holders include active market makers Custodial structures mask true distribution
Evidence ledger
4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx token supply at slot 438936630(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:ef784c05ae778df178acda7f1c217f5117a0cfa88222a7ce9ca0230dcc0213d5
- onchainreliability: primary
HOODx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))
sha256:7e9c5438c266f31a31334a192c0735474d25e3b72dcbd2858ee8a016b129e468
- marketreliability: high
HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)
sha256:602274f45ecc9f6488f1f56f9e95be569f648b664c7909333f0532fd3973754c
- marketreliability: high
HOODx token price and HOOD reference price(Jupiter price service)
sha256:127d997b7eede0f0352baa602fbd387980abee8e3e6b96e454a787be1f026372
Methodology
Methods
- Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
- Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
- Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
- Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines
Exclusions and transformations
- UTC clock normalization
- Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
- Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed
Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset
Confidence rationale
Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).
Limitations
- Liquidity and volume metrics lack historical baseline for trend comparison; prior snapshots report null values for these fields.
- The 9.3-hour observation window may not capture full market regime variation including US equity market hours.
- Top five holder classification does not distinguish between pools, custodians, and economic owners.
- Transaction count does not differentiate trade size or direction, limiting interpretation of flow dynamics.
- Premium measurement assumes synchronous reference price; equity market latency or stale prints could distort calculation.
- Pool-level liquidity distribution across 13 venues is unavailable, preventing assessment of fragmentation risk.
- Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
Related research
This object elsewhere
sha256:e071bfabfefc7530cc98609b05feea53fc5da47a9e4b70542c9df198a239cb9a
This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.
Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.