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Marketmetis_0101M03SYT66JXTCTR80v1

CRCLx trades +52.5bps above the CRCL reference price

Token price diverges 52.5bps from the reference equity price.

Confidence: high88%CRCLx

Summary

CRCLx trades at +52.5bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,012,686 across 25 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $204,614 implies 0.04x turnover of pooled liquidity.

Why it matters

Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.

Key observations

CRCLx trades at +52.5bps versus the CRCL reference price.

premium_bps = 52.5 bps (baseline 42.569)

Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).

supply_ui_amount = 821,079.766 tokens (baseline 821,079.766)

Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,012,686 across 25 pools.

liquidity_usd = 5,012,686 USD (baseline 5,011,551)

The five largest token accounts hold 54.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).

top5_account_share = 0.544 ratio (baseline 0.544)

24h DEX volume of $204,614 implies 0.04x turnover of pooled liquidity.

volume_24h_usd = 204,614 USD

Thesis

The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 52.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.

Claims

  • Factconfidence 95%

    CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.

  • Calculationconfidence 90%

    CRCLx trades at +52.5bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.37283065806118 vs $71).

  • Factconfidence 88%

    Tracked DEX liquidity is $5,012,686 with $204,614 of 24h volume across 25 pools.

  • Hypothesisconfidence 50%

    The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.

    Would falsify this: The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading.

Evidence ledger

4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.

  • onchainreliability: primary

    CRCLx token supply at slot 439523491(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))

    sha256:a163fa6ac6d751292eacbf45a4caf60730a4f9fea736d8bfe438579c6ddb5cb2

  • onchainreliability: primary

    CRCLx largest token accounts(Solana mainnet (direct RPC))

    sha256:b47d50c6abe08346c4e7399bd14a34e9b4fbfc4c361e730f1ed429afac47094b

  • marketreliability: high

    CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume(DexScreener aggregated venue data)

    sha256:348b5e02a0799506ea048f3c21dc4db8924bba2117311b0cc6e2e7b2fafdc375

  • marketreliability: high

    CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price(Jupiter price service)

    sha256:b75d16f8d9948b4542085368d6d92c428213b77717edfe3afa1d731fc06368a8

Methodology

Methods

  • Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
  • Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
  • Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
  • Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines

Exclusions and transformations

  • UTC clock normalization
  • Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
  • Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed

Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset

Confidence rationale

Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.88 (high).

Limitations

  • This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.
  • Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.
  • Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.

Related research

This object elsewhere

sha256:d4710e0e7a3b9be3b417853281410511e72dd38400f32a1ab068367cff12ec1b

This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.

Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.