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Marketmetis_0101M02WRZCH2BKVJ0RWv1

CRCLx trades +29.9bps above the CRCL reference price

Token price diverges 29.9bps from the reference equity price.

Confidence: moderate64%CRCLx

Summary

CRCLx trades at +29.9bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,468,941 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $2,002,927 implies 0.81x turnover of pooled liquidity.

Why it matters

Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.

Key observations

CRCLx trades at +29.9bps versus the CRCL reference price.

premium_bps = 29.9 bps (baseline 66.842)

Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).

supply_ui_amount = 821,079.768 tokens (baseline 821,079.768)

Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,468,941 across ? pools.

liquidity_usd = 2,468,941 USD (baseline 2,486,649)

The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).

top5_account_share = 0.543 ratio (baseline 0.543)

24h DEX volume of $2,002,927 implies 0.81x turnover of pooled liquidity.

volume_24h_usd = 2,002,927 USD

Thesis

The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 29.9bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.

Claims

  • Factconfidence 95%

    CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.

  • Calculationconfidence 90%

    CRCLx trades at +29.9bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.21214488230325 vs $71).

  • Factconfidence 88%

    Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,468,941 with $2,002,927 of 24h volume across 0 pools.

  • Hypothesisconfidence 50%

    The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.

    Would falsify this: The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading.

Evidence ledger

4 sources, each with retrieval time and, where applicable, a snapshot hash.

Methodology

Methods

  • Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts
  • Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume
  • Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service
  • Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines

Exclusions and transformations

  • UTC clock normalization
  • Raw payload hashing for every source fetch
  • Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed

Comparison window: Stored observation history for this asset

Confidence rationale

Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).

Limitations

  • This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.
  • Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.
  • Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.
  • Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1.

Related research

This object elsewhere

sha256:78bf8d79a37ab6f70cc7749ad97c0bfb8015c87dd57c2d676d63516f388c65d4

This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.

Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.