{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M03Q36JNQRFDGVCD",
  "slug": "tslax-trades-26bps-above-the-tsla-reference-price-2026-08-15-220120",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "TSLAx trades +26bps above the TSLA reference price",
  "dek": "Token price diverges 26bps from the reference equity price.",
  "summary": "TSLAx trades at +26bps versus the TSLA reference price. Circulating supply is 229,638.133 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $897,454 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 44.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $800,647 implies 0.89x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
  "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 26bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
  "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_tslax",
      "symbol": "TSLAx",
      "name": "Tesla xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB",
      "referenceTicker": "TSLA",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tslax",
    "solana",
    "market",
    "premium-divergence"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-15T10:01:04.441Z",
    "end": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "TSLAx trades at +26bps versus the TSLA reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 26,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 17.20283314668865
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 229,638.133 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 229638.13348679,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 229638.13348679,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $897,454 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 897454,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 886003
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 44.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.44596514833962103,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.44596514833962103
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $800,647 implies 0.89x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 800647,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "TSLAx token supply at slot 439516253",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T22:00:55.799Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:f737a7ab9a1e6b588444770fe2aa470c4b622d63408ac837e4f13aaa3b8ed737",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "TSLAx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T22:00:56.919Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ca9f4ba2daee89ff614076bf99c7919caab225a0cdf238ce17f78a2211996a0f",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "TSLAx token price and TSLA reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:00.999Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:e2d0690752b570b14ef186f0ea9141c480383cb70805f06e3ca7fb3b2f31f496",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "TSLAx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB,Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh,XsoCS1TfEyfFhfvj8EtZ528L3CaKBDBRqRapnBbDF2W",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T22:00:55.436Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a6d5a4c0b0d475a1a9fe90568027d0c1767afa3e5565cdb2e65cae864fdcad66",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "TSLAx circulating supply is 229,638.133 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "TSLAx trades at +26bps versus the TSLA reference price ($342.51882809272206 vs $341.63).",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $897,454 with $800,647 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.88
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220055799Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T220056919Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220100999Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T220055436Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.64,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.02,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
    "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M03Q2KG5QHYYRKY3",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:16.471Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:20.304Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:cd8b67b8d4e635434668f0dd2718df132aaaf5fc4ea102f2b1b06f02b15e5395",
    "contentHash": "sha256:9f326c4528734ec40094d7e172876f7d2362678a04f307fb914e8e70369cea38"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/tslax-trades-26bps-above-the-tsla-reference-price-2026-08-15-220120",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:20.725Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T22:01:20.725Z"
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  "distribution": []
}