{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZYC1F6CNEKVW79M",
  "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-78bps-discount-as-liquidity-contracts-12-amid-high-volum",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Trades at 78bps Discount as Liquidity Contracts 12% Amid High Volume",
  "dek": "SpaceX xStock token shows material price divergence from reference equity with elevated turnover and persistent holder concentration over 11.5-hour observation",
  "summary": "SPCXx is trading at -78.3 basis points below its SPCX reference price, representing a material divergence from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -6.3 bps. Liquidity has contracted 12% from $920,317 to $808,070 while 24-hour volume remains elevated at $3.45 million, yielding a 4.27x liquidity turnover ratio. The five largest accounts control 84.8% of the 559,999 token supply, indicating high concentration risk.",
  "thesis": "The token's significant discount to reference price, combined with declining liquidity and extreme holder concentration, suggests potential market stress or sentiment shift that warrants monitoring for further dislocation.",
  "whyItMatters": "The material premium divergence indicates a breakdown in price parity mechanisms, while high turnover amid contracting liquidity may signal market maker strain. Extreme holder concentration creates manipulation risk and potential liquidity cascades if large holders exit.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "liquidity-contraction",
    "holder-concentration",
    "market-stress",
    "tokenized-equity"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T08:11:00.678Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -78.3bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -78.3,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -6.3108317013683175
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.518 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.51760284,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.51760284,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $808,070 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 808070,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 861036
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 84.8% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.847949068355037,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.847949068355037
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,451,328 implies 4.27x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3451328,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439084710",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T20:10:56.155Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d07dec589b9ee465fb823c396e8c62cf068a82244bdf021ccf248b45bf7df77e",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T20:10:57.885Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:90c0f1e852c7941cf01719acffcd8afa095fb3c919b852001a84de928362972f",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:00.993Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:98c93c0b24119cca7291b13a5ccd7f1661d4a036b39fd1b4786f379851083a1e",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T20:10:55.786Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:f663c02bc4bb58d84145272264718dee2e28e4feb6b21c15b624b71029c3c7b5",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -78.30 basis points versus the SPCX reference price of $142.325, a material divergence from the baseline average of -6.31 bps.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $808,069.72.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume is $3,451,327.75.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Volume-to-liquidity ratio is 4.27x, indicating 4.27 turns of pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Top five accounts hold 84.79% of supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.518 tokens, effectively unchanged across the 11.5-hour baseline.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Liquidity has declined 12.2% from the baseline opening level of $920,316.84 to current $808,069.72.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "liquidity_usd increases above $920k",
        "new pools added to tracking"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The combination of widening discount, contracting liquidity, and high turnover suggests potential market maker stress or systematic selling pressure.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201056155Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T201057885Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201100993Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T201055786Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium returns to baseline average",
        "liquidity rebounds above $900k",
        "volume declines proportionally"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "DEX price feed unavailable (dex_price_usd null) limits cross-verification",
    "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h, pair_count) not reported",
    "Top 5 holder composition unknown: cannot distinguish between pool, custodial, or individual wallets",
    "Failed Dexscreener source may omit additional liquidity venues",
    "24-hour price change of -3.92% lacks intraday granularity",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZYBZRXETSNQ81DV",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:45.092Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:56.976Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:754ca3afa8d0a9c3f5a2d57274d94833fc1256b16c83c31d4aabfbf88b6fb915",
    "contentHash": "sha256:059adc73424af9817e08422d14a5065eeba3a07dbc79c22bc0785759413c96a2"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-trades-at-78bps-discount-as-liquidity-contracts-12-amid-high-volum",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:57.516Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T20:11:57.516Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}