{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZYX6XH3S6CQHD4B",
  "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-55bps-discount-with-5-6x-liquidity-turnover-2026-08-14-0",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Trades at 55bps Discount with 5.6x Liquidity Turnover",
  "dek": "Tokenized SpaceX equity shows notable price divergence and high velocity relative to shallow on-chain liquidity",
  "summary": "SPCXx trades at a 55.1 basis point discount to its $142.00 reference price, with $4.59M in 24h volume representing 5.65x turnover of the $812.7k liquidity pool. Top 5 holders control 85.2% of the 559,998 token supply.",
  "thesis": "The significant discount and high turnover ratio indicate potential liquidity constraints or market sentiment divergence from the underlying reference asset.",
  "whyItMatters": "High velocity relative to liquidity suggests price sensitivity to order flow, while holder concentration and premium volatility raise questions about market structure efficiency.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "liquidity-turnover",
    "holder-concentration",
    "tokenized-equity"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -55.1bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -55.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -8.024753109509584
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.473 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.47262168,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.47262168,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $812,701 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 812701,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 813982
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8517933876648455,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8517933876648455
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,594,640 implies 5.65x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 4594640,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439127924",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:55.695Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4c85ad94a49a91a6cdfbabc202ee56d46478fd9521abc4f70a721d44b69317ac",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:55.951Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4464b656355b72c43da113cdfbafa5f149196cea5f7392a48421ab0512e64c36",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:59.986Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a74f396e025f55f7ca8b37565e1f365e6d5dc1a1a89b319eee231447471dd904",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T01:10:55.336Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4683ef82fff20290b542c765b3384eb7e672e6a74d2693ee7c14146e7f364a6a",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "Current premium of -55.1bps represents a 47.1bps widening from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -8.0bps",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "24h volume of $4.59M is 5.65x current liquidity of $812.7k",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Top 5 holders control 85.2% of circulating supply",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Token price declined 3.32% over 24 hours",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Supply remains stable at 559,998.47 tokens",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Discount persists despite $4.59M in daily volume, suggesting structural rather than temporary factors",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "High holder concentration may amplify price impact of large trades",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055695Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T011055951Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011059986Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T011055336Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If top holders are passive liquidity pools",
        "If concentration metric includes protocol contracts"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "DEX price feed unavailable (dex_price_usd: null)",
    "Transaction count data missing (txns_h1, txns_24h: null)",
    "Dexscreener source failed (HTTP 429)",
    "11.5-hour baseline may not capture full market cycles",
    "High holder concentration includes pool addresses",
    "Pair count data unavailable",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZYX51AH10AQ9A2X",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T01:11:36.144Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T01:12:01.294Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:9f558948362c484de6c92bcca90ec052b1ee84738bcec222cae4cfba8afe57dc",
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-trades-at-55bps-discount-with-5-6x-liquidity-turnover-2026-08-14-0",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T01:12:01.827Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T01:12:01.827Z"
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  "distribution": []
}