{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M015W97WB8EAXF7N",
  "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-30bps-discount-with-85-6-supply-concentration-2026-08-14",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Trades at -30bps Discount with 85.6% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized SpaceX equity shows high holder concentration and premium volatility over 11.5-hour baseline, with $3.8M daily volume turning liquidity 4.9x",
  "summary": "SPCXx trades at a 30.2 basis point discount to its reference price, with the top five holders controlling 85.6% of the 560k token supply. Over the past 24 hours, the token price declined 1.53% despite significant premium volatility ranging from -304 to +69 bps across the observation period. Liquidity stands at $780k, generating $3.8M in daily volume for a 4.88x turnover ratio. The high concentration and persistent discount suggest liquidity risk concerns.",
  "thesis": "SPCXx exhibits structural liquidity constraints due to extreme supply concentration, creating persistent discount volatility and high turnover ratios that indicate elevated trading friction.",
  "whyItMatters": "Extreme holder concentration creates fundamental liquidity risk for tokenized equity, as evidenced by volatile premiums and high volume-to-liquidity ratios, potentially undermining price discovery and fair value representation.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "concentration",
    "premium-volatility",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -30.2bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -30.2,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -25.624350497944874
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.421 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.4211348,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.4211348,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $780,167 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 780167,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 758820
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8557437593125388,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8557437593125388
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,808,153 implies 4.88x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3808153,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439311377",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:56.008Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:291ca3b8725dfb59e31c0b083f044e193b926d8e3af450219b757632ade57e67",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:56.415Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:fdf9becee785d5f0f369ab9c2c91ca9df5fca580e01b64b78fd21bfe84651d22",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:dc2fd30ba78d4470513c30cc4349d390769699e5e56e7547678f8678e1ae1c2d",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:55.671Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:9977626ab0d6bec8fd6f7d7f4c995156286122b046e54cb33022ba1d47d49b6b",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at a 30.2 basis point discount to its $140.63 reference price, with a token price of $140.20.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.421 tokens, showing negligible change from the baseline start of 559,998.446 tokens 11.5 hours prior.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.57% of total supply, indicating extreme concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $3,808,153 represents a 4.88x turnover of the current $780,167 pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Premium volatility across the 11.5-hour baseline was substantial, ranging from -304 bps to +69 bps, suggesting ongoing price discovery challenges.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If premium stabilizes within a 50 bps band for 24 consecutive hours"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Current liquidity of $780,167 sits near the median of the baseline range ($664,880 to $851,536), indicating neither acute stress nor excess.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If liquidity falls below $650k or exceeds $850k in next 6 hours"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The persistent discount combined with 85.6% holder concentration suggests the market prices in liquidity risk and limited float availability.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If premium turns positive while concentration remains above 80%",
        "If concentration drops below 70% without premium compression"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Token price declined 1.53% over the past 24 hours despite premium volatility, indicating broader market pressure on the underlying reference.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.6,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "DEX price data unavailable (dex_price_usd: null) due to Dexscreener API rate limiting",
    "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) and pair count not captured in current snapshot",
    "Top 5 holder composition unknown; may include liquidity pools and custodial accounts per observation",
    "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, insufficient for definitive trend identification",
    "Failed Dexscreener source may introduce data gaps during high-volatility periods",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M015TFWPSEWFDNZA",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:36.691Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:58.777Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:ed2a01d5c700c9fd7c5757ba0c15a74cd8e99053895848c5068b3188e240ed36",
    "contentHash": "sha256:a789f8f5d93c558cbc3ebc1e3e85cbef04d40917c01abefb76635ffbad7262ab"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-trades-at-30bps-discount-with-85-6-supply-concentration-2026-08-14",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:59.420Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:59.420Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}