{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M0008J5CTB5RMJGS",
  "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-134bps-discount-with-86-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Trades at 134bps Discount with 86% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "SpaceX xStock token shows material price divergence from reference equity, high holder concentration, and 5.6x liquidity turnover in 24-hour period.",
  "summary": "SPCXx is trading at a -134.1 basis point discount to its SPCX reference price, representing a material divergence. The token shows extreme supply concentration with the top 5 holders controlling 86.2% of circulating supply. 24-hour DEX volume of $4.69M against $829K pooled liquidity implies 5.65x turnover, indicating active trading relative to available liquidity. The token price declined 3.85% over 24 hours while circulating supply remained stable at 559,998 tokens.",
  "thesis": "The combination of significant price discount, extreme holder concentration, and high liquidity turnover indicates potential market stress and structural inefficiencies in the SPCXx token market that warrant careful monitoring.",
  "whyItMatters": "Extreme holder concentration creates governance and liquidity risks, while the material discount suggests either fundamental mispricing or constrained market access. High turnover relative to thin liquidity amplifies execution risk for participants and may indicate distressed selling or arbitrage activity.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "premium-divergence",
    "supply-concentration",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "market-stress"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T23:11:00.389Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -134.1bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -134.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -28.77386943419837
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.446 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.44578931,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.44578931,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $828,946 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 828946,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 820916
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 86.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8618018358875642,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8618018358875642
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,687,400 implies 5.65x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 4687400,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439216110",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:20:56.104Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:44bc02609fa4df92947d711296f33486cce8accb5317f8f089a0ea58220097e8",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:20:57.074Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:e8e3787c3b47a870dbc18ffd1a85324f294bf9a56cda0536f080ddc02bd5748f",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:21:01.113Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:27d90823406f7ed71ecb02b4287a7aa9fd7ae310e3df8c506534440e3d7cfc84",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:20:55.731Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:b33244aeb136946aca16026cb9103e9a6ead136387179809dd8f5c9702a34f47",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at a discount of 134.1 basis points to the SPCX reference price, with a token price of $140.42 versus reference price of $142.33.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 86.2% of circulating supply, which totals 559,998.446 tokens.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume reached $4,687,400 against pooled liquidity of $828,946, while the token price declined 3.85% over the same period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The volume-to-liquidity ratio implies 5.65x turnover of available pooled liquidity within 24 hours, calculated as $4,687,400 / $828,946.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The 86.2% supply concentration among top five holders indicates significant governance and market manipulation risks, as a small cohort controls the vast majority of tokens.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Decrease in top5_holder_share below 70%",
        "Disclosure that top holders are protocol-owned liquidity"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The material premium divergence of -134.1 bps, flagged as a severity:material detection, suggests market stress, liquidity constraints, or potential mispricing relative to the reference equity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Premium returning to within 50 bps of neutral",
        "Reference price adjustment eliminating divergence"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The observed discount may reflect selling pressure from concentrated holders liquidating positions, amplified by limited liquidity depth.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "On-chain evidence of top5 holder selling",
        "Increase in liquidity_usd above $2M",
        "Premium reversal without volume spike"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The high turnover ratio (5.65x) relative to thin liquidity suggests potential arbitrage activity or distressed trading.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112056104Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T112057074Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112101113Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T112055731Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Sustained high volume over 7 days without price impact",
        "txns_h1 data showing distributed patterns"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.58,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.58 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "DEX price data unavailable (dex_price_usd: null) prevents direct verification of on-chain execution prices.",
    "Transaction counts (txns_h1, txns_24h) not available, limiting analysis of trading frequency and pattern.",
    "Pair count data missing, obscuring market structure and liquidity distribution across venues.",
    "Dexscreener source failed with HTTP 429, creating potential data gaps in DEX coverage.",
    "Top holder composition unknown - cannot distinguish between protocol liquidity, custodial accounts, or individual investors.",
    "Baseline comparison limited to 11.7-hour window, insufficient for longer-term trend validation.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M00020MB6R720SGH",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:24:25.090Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:24:34.834Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:c590aa5803b0e222ad512f6296f968e2a328e89fe0e938256257c1b838a1ec75",
    "contentHash": "sha256:e52c07586c6c4686bf916a619e377e05e223a739f507646e2487d3b4fb9874e2"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-trades-at-134bps-discount-with-86-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T11:24:35.884Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T11:24:35.884Z"
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  "distribution": []
}