{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZWCGT6F8TGA4CDE",
  "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-102bps-discount-with-internal-price-conflict-and-84-6-su",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Trades at 102bps Discount With Internal Price Conflict and 84.6% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "SPCXx trades at a 102bps discount to its reference price with an 84bps internal price conflict and 84.6% supply concentration among top holders.",
  "summary": "SPCXx trades at a 101.99 basis point discount to its $146.70 reference price, with an internal 84 basis point price conflict between Jupiter ($145.20) and top DEX pool ($146.43). The five largest holders control 84.58% of supply. 24-hour volume of $1.28M represents 0.97x of the $1.33M total liquidity across 30 pools. Hourly transactions of 276 are in the lower quartile of the 10.3-hour baseline range.",
  "thesis": "SPCXx exhibits significant price dislocation from its reference asset, internal market fragmentation, and extreme supply concentration, suggesting structural inefficiencies and potential liquidity risks.",
  "whyItMatters": "These conditions indicate potential price discovery failures, limited float for active trading, and elevated risks for market participants seeking fair value exposure to the underlying reference asset.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "premium-discount",
    "price-arbitrage",
    "supply-concentration",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T15:00:29.581Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -102bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -102,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -15.939290376773632
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.589 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.58869375,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.58869375,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,329,158 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 1329158,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 1378917
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 84.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8457705735975298,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8457705735975298
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $1,284,535 implies 0.97x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 1284535,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 438925064",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:38.626Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a53e8330d15cc818a4927184812680e91796711945ed8e27ed368bb63e0e4e2e",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.377Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:fc5a10ef8c724cbf43fbe95a191a3bcba7f6bd21c255fcb88ed8d4c3997a7c45",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.638Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:146ff10b568508b0acd43a92f034f7e1d82bdd9af4fa331a916d26408cbea3ba",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:40:52.808Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:5843846765d69f144dfdfbc935c99954904ae190a03f461d847a9fc1968c57ba",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at a 101.99 basis point discount to its reference equity price of $146.70, with a token price of $145.20.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "An 84 basis point price divergence exists between Jupiter's aggregated price ($145.20) and the top DEX pool price ($146.43).",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 84.58% of circulating supply, indicating extreme holder concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $1,284,535 represents 0.97x turnover of the $1,329,158 total pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The negative premium combined with declining liquidity from a $1.46M baseline peak to $1.33M current suggests sustained selling pressure.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If new liquidity enters the pools",
        "If premium reverts to positive territory"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 276 sits in the lower quartile of the 10.3-hour baseline range (238-1,474), indicating reduced short-term activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If hourly transactions exceed 500 in subsequent snapshots"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Persistent price source conflicts across 30 trading pairs may indicate structural liquidity fragmentation rather than temporary arbitrage gaps.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014038626Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T014052377Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T014052638Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T014052808Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If price convergence occurs within 2 hours",
        "If arbitrage volume spikes"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.66,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.66 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Analysis limited to 10.3-hour baseline; longer-term trends unknown",
    "Composition of top 5 holders unspecified (may include pools or custodial accounts)",
    "No data on bid-ask spreads or depth within the 30 liquidity pools",
    "Trading pair distribution and which pools drive price discovery are unknown",
    "Reference price methodology and update frequency are not disclosed",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZWCF12SCK0E9WAN",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T01:41:24.608Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T01:41:50.709Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:941540f7e387f7151d6f238d87999dae5ef0bfb63f0e04e8fb6efd1ba60bb0d7",
    "contentHash": "sha256:dbe6cf0942bfca78d4ae8e5d89c03b57b2b0baee33260b1ed6fc5fc4fdf8df55"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-trades-at-102bps-discount-with-internal-price-conflict-and-84-6-su",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T01:41:51.439Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T01:41:51.439Z"
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  "distribution": []
}