{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZXM58405WS79503",
  "slug": "spcxx-spacex-xstock-trades-at-150bps-discount-as-concentration-hits-84-7",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SpaceX xStock Trades at 150bps Discount as Concentration Hits 84.7%",
  "dek": "SPCXx shows persistent negative premium to reference equity with top 5 holders controlling 84.7% of supply, while 24-hour volume reaches $3.48M against $883K liquidity.",
  "summary": "SPCXx, the tokenized SpaceX equity derivative, currently trades at $144.39 versus a $146.60 reference price, representing a -150.9 basis point discount. The current premium of -150.86 bps marks a material widening from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -21.3 bps, with values ranging from +40.7 to -150.9 bps across 24 snapshots. Concentration remains elevated at 84.7% held by top 5 accounts, up from 84.6% at baseline start. Despite thin liquidity of $883,471, the market generated $3.48 million in 24-hour volume, implying 3.94x liquidity turnover. Transaction frequency data is unavailable for the current period.",
  "thesis": "The token trades at a structural discount to its reference equity with widening divergence, elevated holder concentration, and efficient liquidity utilization suggesting informed flow rather than distressed selling.",
  "whyItMatters": "Persistent negative premium with high concentration creates execution risk for large orders and raises questions about price discovery efficiency in tokenized equity markets.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "concentration-risk",
    "liquidity-turnover",
    "SpaceX",
    "on-chain-derivatives",
    "market-microstructure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T01:10:51.293Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -150.9bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -150.9,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -21.31647122007336
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.577 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.57650477,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.57650477,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $883,471 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 883471,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 910583
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 84.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8471664429564474,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8471664429564474
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,478,013 implies 3.94x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3478013,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439024321",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:56.106Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:7a8115ca45822ad17b40c7b62d97ff937066ec744bbf81dd95937b2d8661e675",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:56.571Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4a9394eab25ff777d17401f61008ff5ea78d3652fcef7e92d85c025b8a3638e7",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:8dfbba2d776f7e7aa40e88287d20025505d2838d25cf63e98242d1d9c28eb9e4",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:55.733Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:8e5e387badb1f17ccf8ba741743473beea44ab11e061461f6ea574cde4f87d9a",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -150.8646014841873 basis points relative to the SPCX reference price of $146.6",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The current -150.9 bps premium represents a 129.5 bps widening from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -21.3 bps",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline calculation error; verify arithmetic mean of 24 historical premium_bps values"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Top 5 holder concentration increased from 84.58% to 84.72% over the 11.5-hour observation window",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Supply UI amount changed -0.00002% between measurements; concentration change may reflect price movement in pool valuations rather than net accumulation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour volume of $3,478,013 against $883,471 liquidity implies 3.94x turnover ratio",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The premium has exhibited high volatility with range of 191.5 bps (-150.9 to +40.7) across 24 snapshots, suggesting price discovery instability",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volatility may reflect legitimate reference price movement rather than token mispricing; requires cross-checking SPCX equity price stability"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Sustained negative premium with elevated volume/liquidity ratio indicates directional selling pressure rather than liquidity-driven mispricing",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volume could represent two-sided flow with temporary imbalance; verify trade directionality",
        "Reference equity may have gapped up while token lagged; check timestamp alignment"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Transaction count data (txns_h1, txns_24h) unavailable for current snapshot prevents assessment of order flow intensity",
    "DEX price feed unavailable due to API rate limiting from dexscreener",
    "Pool count and specific venue distribution unknown; liquidity may be concentrated in single DEX",
    "11.5-hour baseline insufficient to establish weekly or monthly premium patterns",
    "Token holder identity unknown; top 5 may include liquidity pools, custodians, or protocol treasuries rather than concentrated speculative positions",
    "Reference price timestamp alignment not verified; $146.60 may be stale versus real-time equity quote",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZXKYPF8QXNKJP5H",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T13:13:29.655Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:34.955Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:2df1d5316d0ac606175cb2d4949bad74461f0203c11c5a1fc71255719b5f1f04",
    "contentHash": "sha256:5c937de0bd6d33d2e7f24414568be3513a696445313abf2d17b22e2aa27fbdab"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-spacex-xstock-trades-at-150bps-discount-as-concentration-hits-84-7",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:35.520Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:35.520Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}