{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZWW2RDPEY8M7R9F", "slug": "spcxx-premium-swings-from-106bps-to-29bps-in-11-5-hours-as-liquidity-sta", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "SPCXx Premium Swings from -106bps to +29bps in 11.5 Hours as Liquidity Stabilizes Near $916K", "dek": "SpaceX xStock token trades at a 28.8 basis point premium to reference equity after volatile premium oscillations, with 24-hour volume of $3.6M generating 3.9x liquidity turnover.", "summary": "SPCXx, a tokenized SpaceX equity derivative, currently trades at $147.12 versus a $146.70 reference price, representing a +28.8bps premium. Over the preceding 11.5-hour baseline period, the premium exhibited extreme volatility, ranging from -106.5bps to +40.7bps with at least 14 directional crossings through zero. Liquidity has stabilized near $915,796 across Jupiter-sourced pools, while 24-hour volume of $3,602,652 implies substantial capital efficiency. Supply remains fixed at approximately 560,000 tokens with 84.6% concentrated among top five holders.", "thesis": "The SPCXx market exhibits structural characteristics of low-float, high-concentration tokenized equity: extreme premium volatility, efficient liquidity utilization, and persistent holder concentration that amplifies price discovery challenges.", "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equity premiums serve as real-time proxies for market access demand and arbitrage friction. The observed volatility suggests incomplete price discovery mechanisms and potential execution risk for size, while the 84.6% holder concentration indicates limited free float and susceptibility to coordinated flow.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_spcxx", "symbol": "SPCXx", "name": "SpaceX xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "referenceTicker": "SPCX", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "tokenized-equity", "spacex", "premium-volatility", "liquidity-turnover", "holder-concentration", "xstock", "arbitrage" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T18:10:50.661Z", "end": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "SPCXx trades at +28.8bps versus the SPCX reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 28.8, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -25.45509160698335 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.589 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 559998.58869375, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 559998.58869375, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $915,796 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 915796, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 895063 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 84.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.8457293009935148, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.8457293009935148 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,602,652 implies 3.93x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 3602652, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 438963855", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:56.198Z", "dataHash": "sha256:0062e04b4431addb3eb10a2c93388fb271b659ee3addbc1545c3fda0b89ad94a", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:56.720Z", "dataHash": "sha256:753baae73d4003fa5b2819e43873ec40da4e4cfc69c7332982e148f540bfb6f0", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:58.803Z", "dataHash": "sha256:e29096d443c98cf621ec544b99dde6e2e5fbec3ad702c744bbd1370f11eb1913", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:10:55.834Z", "dataHash": "sha256:50df000cc41cf2b0078a7db946408f19ee2845aa39d6a9652bbdfff59a5d84e4", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "SPCXx currently trades at a premium of 28.822492159360202 basis points to the SPCX reference price of $146.70.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.98, "falsifiers": [ "reference_price_usd updates to non-146.7 value", "premium_bps recalculated using different methodology" ] }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The token price of $147.1228259599778 represents a 10.191064213766156 percent increase over 24 hours.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.95, "falsifiers": [ "price_change_24h_pct calculated from different reference point", "token_price_usd stale or erroneous" ] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Premium volatility across the 11.5-hour baseline spans 147.2 basis points, from -106.4606463188143 bps to +40.69391991438712 bps.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.92, "falsifiers": [ "baseline snapshots exclude extreme values", "timestamp misalignment in baseline data" ] }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $3,602,652 against $915,796 in liquidity implies 3.93x turnover of pooled capital.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.9, "falsifiers": [ "volume_24h_usd includes wash trading", "liquidity_usd double-counts overlapping pools" ] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 84.57293009935148 percent of total supply, indicating severe holder concentration.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.94, "falsifiers": [ "top5_holder_share calculation excludes known pool addresses", "supply_ui_amount inaccurate due to unaccounted burns/mints" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Supply has remained effectively unchanged at approximately 559,998.589 tokens across all 24 baseline observations.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.97, "falsifiers": [ "supply_ui_amount precision masks material changes", "untracked mint/burn events in observation gaps" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Premium direction has crossed through zero multiple times during the baseline period, suggesting absence of persistent arbitrage pressure.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "crossings represent data artifacts rather than traded prices", "arbitrageurs are capital-constrained rather than absent" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The convergence of premium toward positive territory alongside sustained volume suggests net buying pressure from market access demand rather than fundamental repricing of the underlying equity.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056198Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T061056720Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061058803Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T061055834Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "reference equity SPCX experienced material price movement unreported here", "premium compression driven by arbitrageur entry rather than demand" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.62, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.04, "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "DEX price data unavailable due to DexScreener API rate limiting, preventing cross-validation of Jupiter-sourced prices.", "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) are null in current observation, obscuring trade frequency and size distribution.", "Pair count unavailable, preventing assessment of liquidity fragmentation across venues.", "Baseline liquidity data only available from 2026-08-13T03:11:00 onward, limiting historical liquidity trend analysis to 3 hours.", "Holder concentration metric does not distinguish between liquidity pools, custodial accounts, and concentrated individual positions.", "Reference price sourcing methodology for SPCX equity is unspecified, introducing potential staleness or staleness-risk.", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZWVXK9NJP3TG2N1", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T06:13:29.664Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T06:13:47.547Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:78f3b843d0eaf212d49f90f311acd48dad95ce181f6742c6afde559fe8be8cff", "contentHash": "sha256:1b806f3024c9cc8dcb9faccd59e681380480cbd6ce0ba897435954608e0c0be2" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-premium-swings-from-106bps-to-29bps-in-11-5-hours-as-liquidity-sta", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T06:13:48.086Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T06:13:48.086Z" }, "distribution": [] }