{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M00MQN50VJ6S5JSW",
  "slug": "spcxx-premium-swings-97bps-from-discount-to-premium-over-11-7-hours-2026",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Premium Swings 97bps From Discount to Premium Over 11.7 Hours",
  "dek": "SpaceX xStock token trades at a 63.9bps premium to reference equity after oscillating between -304bps and +82bps, with concentrated supply and active DEX turnover signaling speculative price discovery.",
  "summary": "SPCXx, a tokenized equity tracking SpaceX, exhibits extreme premium volatility over the 11.7-hour observation window, shifting from a -304.6bps discount to a +63.9bps premium against the underlying SPCX reference price. Current metrics show $1.26M in DEX liquidity across 30 pools, $1.77M in 24-hour volume (1.41x liquidity turnover), and 85.6% supply concentration among top five holders. The token's 24-hour price decline of -1.89% contrasts with the premium's directional flip, indicating that reference equity weakness drove nominal token price lower while the basis expanded. Short-term transaction activity remains elevated at 518 hourly transactions.",
  "thesis": "SPCXx premium volatility reflects thin liquidity and concentrated ownership enabling rapid basis swings, with current premium levels potentially unsustainable given historical discount regimes and price-source dispersion.",
  "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equity premiums directly impact holder cost basis versus direct equity exposure; extreme volatility in the SPCXx-SPCX basis creates arbitrage uncertainty and complicates valuation for synthetic equity positions.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "spacex",
    "premium-arbitrage",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "concentration-risk",
    "dex-volume",
    "basis-volatility"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T05:11:00.561Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at +63.9bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 63.9,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -33.16165120522513
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.423 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.42252403,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.42252403,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,257,971 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 1257971,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 1272195
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8557437571896311,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8557437571896311
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $1,773,906 implies 1.41x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 1773906,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439268054",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:57.670Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:730597ffb7600530d354cf0417b6af90b85075e84fd95b8b00565650c5fcea88",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.126Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4f096a500410f9844e792b1c24457cb985ebcfc89c4f7166f1660a5d2e8ac3b7",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.140Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a9e9f3cb7d13864244fdd9c82bac274091d80fc81d1790a956ad6b5e44bb0190",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:20:58.219Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ce1418b80531f0b1958e90660b00628105e47d05a403f97dfc07ff34165174a4",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx premium versus SPCX reference price shifted from -304.6bps to +63.9bps over the 11.7-hour baseline period, a 368.5bps range.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline premium_bps values are misrecorded",
        "Reference price source changed methodology"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Current premium of 63.9bps represents a 97.1bps swing from the -33.2bps baseline average.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline average calculation error",
        "Missing baseline observations"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Top five token accounts control 85.6% of circulating supply, indicating extreme ownership concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Top5_holder_share includes non-circulating treasury",
        "Wallet clustering misidentifies distinct holders"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $1,773,906 implies 1.41x turnover of the $1,257,971 in pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.96,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volume double-counts routed trades",
        "Liquidity figure captures inactive pools"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Price sources disagree by 46bps between Jupiter ($138.721) and top DEX pool ($138.077), indicating execution slippage risk.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.94,
      "falsifiers": [
        "DEX price is stale timestamp",
        "Jupiter price includes MEV-adjusted routing"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Supply contracted by 0.0000084% (0.047 tokens) over the baseline period, effectively static.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "SupplyUiAmount precision truncation",
        "Burn/mint events between observations"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The premium's rapid reversal from deep discount to positive territory suggests speculative repositioning rather than fundamental repricing of SpaceX equity risk.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference equity experienced material news event",
        "Large institutional arbitrage flow entered market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Sustained premium above 50bps is unlikely without continued speculative inflow given historical mean-reversion to discount regimes.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172057670Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T172058126Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T172058140Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T172058219Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference equity enters sustained rally reducing arbitrage supply",
        "New liquidity pools launch reducing concentration",
        "Regulatory clarity enables institutional premium acceptance"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.68,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.68 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline lacks continuous liquidity and volume data; 18 of 24 snapshots report null values constraining turnover trend analysis.",
    "Top5_holder_share metric cannot distinguish between liquidity pools, custodial accounts, and concentrated individual ownership.",
    "Premium_bps calculation assumes reference_price_usd accuracy; no verification of SPCX equity feed methodology provided.",
    "11.7-hour window captures intraday dynamics but insufficient for weekly or regime-change conclusions.",
    "Price-source dispersion of 46bps may reflect timing mismatches rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M00MN4CR4VB1PQSB",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T17:22:03.774Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T17:22:21.422Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:dfb26d953a32028f83e55c0d7f966c3cc31645a7e3ce8c81e7ff734030b656b6",
    "contentHash": "sha256:38fc88c9e433266b4404c37b360e9c0c41b48bb1e662d3f6fd42a39bd46164cd"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-premium-swings-97bps-from-discount-to-premium-over-11-7-hours-2026",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T17:22:21.984Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T17:22:21.984Z"
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  "distribution": []
}