{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZTQY4J756MH7QWS",
  "slug": "spcxx-premium-drops-to-31bps-as-liquidity-and-volume-hold-steady-2026-08",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Premium Drops to -31bps as Liquidity and Volume Hold Steady",
  "dek": "The token's discount to its reference equity deepened amid stable on-chain liquidity and high turnover, while transaction activity slowed.",
  "summary": "SPCXx traded at a 30.8 basis point discount to its reference equity price on August 12, with $1.39M in DEX liquidity and $6.34M in 24-hour volume. The top five holders control 83.5% of supply, and hourly transactions fell to 186.",
  "thesis": "The token's premium has reversed from positive territory earlier in the day to a notable discount, suggesting shifting market sentiment despite stable underlying liquidity and volume metrics.",
  "whyItMatters": "Premium divergence indicates potential mispricing between the token and its reference asset, which could signal arbitrage opportunities or underlying market stress that professional traders monitor closely.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "SPCXx",
    "premium",
    "liquidity",
    "volume",
    "concentration",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
    "end": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -30.8bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -30.8,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 12.27714095558425
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.637 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.63697348,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.63697348,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,393,073 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 1393073,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 1381298
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 83.5% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8353013904302096,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8353013904302096
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $6,340,073 implies 4.55x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 6340073,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 438793488",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:28.995Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:08d629043a54aca2678433bc30b93e4d8ef773a3f6461f0cb3dc0080acf0c44a",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.628Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:2a724ae7b1d357f2cf37634924ca2bb777a98705194c7b6584798a928ee5f359",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.737Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:2f0460884965e2a55809493fa216bf7b1456e7e565d9bf81d5cbc17a8c8daced",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T10:20:29.795Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:6220fa8e51ed11b8ba9873a2da887b8fac8036cd33a2d28734bf76818d643bc9",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at a discount of 30.85 basis points to its SPCX reference price.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.637 tokens, essentially unchanged from the start of the 7.3-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "DEX liquidity totals $1,393,073.06 across 30 pools.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume is $6,340,073.10.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 83.53% of circulating supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The 24-hour volume-to-liquidity ratio is 4.55x, indicating 4.55 turns of the liquidity pool.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The premium has shifted from a baseline average of +12.28 bps to -30.85 bps, representing a 43.13 basis point decline over the 7.3-hour observation window.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102028995Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T102029628Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T102029737Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T102029795Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Premium volatility has been extreme throughout the baseline, ranging from -157.67 bps to +89.56 bps",
        "Arbitrage mechanisms may rapidly compress the current discount"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.73,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.73 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "23 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_failures",
        "contribution": -0.15,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) failed independent verification."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.02,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "The baseline contains null values for liquidity, volume, and transaction metrics during early snapshots, limiting full-period trend analysis.",
    "Top holder share includes pool and custodial accounts, which may overstate true ownership concentration.",
    "Premium volatility has been extreme, ranging from -157.67 bps to +89.56 bps within the 7.3-hour window, making interpretation uncertain.",
    "No data is available on the individual composition or depth of the 30 liquidity pools.",
    "The 24-hour metrics may include wash trading or other distortions not captured in the dataset.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZTQSRJ2028ANZER",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-12T10:21:39.342Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
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    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:02724aaa8ffed2c007401880de2a8d2a66fafd55737ceaa50e6b0235ba08d1e3",
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-premium-drops-to-31bps-as-liquidity-and-volume-hold-steady-2026-08",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-12T10:22:53.511Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-12T10:22:53.511Z"
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}