{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M01EMDXX5ZN3RWV7",
  "slug": "spcxx-discount-widens-to-125-6bps-as-liquidity-recovers-from-11-5-hour-l",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "SPCXx Discount Widens to -125.6bps as Liquidity Recovers from 11.5-Hour Low",
  "dek": "SpaceX xStock trades at its steepest discount to reference equity in 24 hours, with liquidity rebounding 18% from trough levels while volume compression signals reduced market activity.",
  "summary": "SPCXx, a tokenized equity tracking SpaceX (SPCX), currently trades at $138.80 versus a reference price of $140.56, representing a -125.6 basis point discount that marks the widest divergence in the 11.5-hour observation window. Liquidity has recovered to $789,551 from a low of $664,880, though 24-hour volume of $3.08 million reflects a 38% decline from peak activity. The token exhibits extreme supply concentration with top five holders controlling 85.5% of the 559,998 token supply. Premium volatility has been pronounced, ranging from -304.6bps to +63.9bps, with the current discount representing a material departure from the -34.4bps baseline average.",
  "thesis": "The widening discount to -125.6bps reflects deteriorating token demand relative to underlying equity, compounded by volume compression that reduces price discovery efficiency despite liquidity recovery.",
  "whyItMatters": "Persistent discounts in tokenized equity products signal basis risk for arbitrageurs and potential redemption pressure, while extreme holder concentration amplifies price impact from large flows.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_spcxx",
      "symbol": "SPCXx",
      "name": "SpaceX xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "spacex",
    "basis-risk",
    "liquidity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "concentration-risk",
    "xstock",
    "arbitrage"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T12:51:00.708Z",
    "end": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -125.6bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -125.6,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -34.40782513014401
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 559998.40318121,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 559998.40318121,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $789,551 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 789551,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 743029
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.5% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8548481400862726,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8548481400862726
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,079,688 implies 3.9x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3079688,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439333007",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:50:55.665Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:795166164c9c79de3de1f702dd428cd3ff4dfbdcc6fe49b340608cb964ead9c5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:50:56.085Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:f84ec74d8172698577635b8a44c5846594ba9358d15173a04c329c6c404950d9",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:6239c02cf6ebeccfb105b851bcd647bfd79c81dc05c881698407798e6b0605d4",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:50:55.310Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:805fb3c80bda33e99a6bd92a31e59f6f52e14b7f3b578e16ce4fd0259fea753f",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "SPCXx trades at -125.62608936442783 basis points versus the SPCX reference price of $140.5615, with a token price of $138.7956808439802.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The current -125.6bps discount represents the widest divergence from reference price in the 11.5-hour baseline period, exceeding the prior extreme of -304.6bps observed at 2026-08-14T13:51:00.921Z.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline contains wider premium divergence not captured in provided snapshots"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Liquidity has recovered 18.7% from the 11.5-hour low of $664,880.12 to current $789,551.32, though remains 7.6% below the period high of $854,252.40.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour volume of $3,079,688.23 implies 3.90x turnover of pooled liquidity, down from 5.82x at peak volume of $4,969,884.73.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 85.48481400862726% of supply, indicating extreme concentration risk.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Premium volatility has exhibited high variance across the baseline, with the current discount representing a material divergence from the -34.4bps average, suggesting potential dislocation in token-equity parity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price staleness",
        "Arbitrage constraints not observable",
        "External market events affecting SPCX equity"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Volume compression concurrent with liquidity recovery suggests reduced trading intensity rather than structural improvement in market depth.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005055665Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T005056085Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005100130Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T005055310Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volume data source inconsistency between Jupiter and DexScreener",
        "Missing transaction count data preventing flow analysis"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "DexScreener data unavailable due to HTTP 429 rate limiting, preventing cross-validation of liquidity and volume figures.",
    "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) are null for current observation, limiting flow analysis.",
    "Pair count data unavailable, obscuring pool-level liquidity distribution.",
    "11.5-hour baseline may not capture full market cycle or external equity market movements in SPCX.",
    "Top five holder share includes pools and custodial accounts, preventing precise identification of beneficial ownership concentration.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M01ED4JZFD5HP543",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T00:52:28.948Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T00:54:58.731Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:5eb288adbd83a2db8e52f55151291c35a7581fcf019fc298779832d78c58bebd",
    "contentHash": "sha256:014f4b3dea13f02fd1477b847f87a591f9f05b2bf9ee570bf79a583d481a3fe2"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-discount-widens-to-125-6bps-as-liquidity-recovers-from-11-5-hour-l",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:54:59.261Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T00:54:59.261Z"
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  "distribution": []
}