{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZW9QZ8TK93MMBXQ",
  "slug": "nvdax-trades-at-8-1-bps-premium-with-stable-liquidity-and-high-holder-co",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "NVDAx Trades at 8.1 bps Premium with Stable Liquidity and High Holder Concentration",
  "dek": "Token shows 59 bps premium volatility over 10 hours while liquidity holds near $2.95M and top 5 holders control 69.7% of supply",
  "summary": "NVDAx currently trades at an 8.14 basis point premium to NVDA reference price. Circulating supply is stable at 321,578 tokens. DEX liquidity totals $2.95M across 30 pools with 24-hour volume of $1.0M representing 0.34x turnover. The five largest accounts control 69.7% of supply. Premium volatility has been significant over the past 10 hours, ranging across 59 bps, while liquidity remained stable.",
  "thesis": "NVDAx exhibits price discovery friction evidenced by volatile premiums, but maintains stable liquidity and concentrated ownership structure.",
  "whyItMatters": "The volatile premium suggests ongoing market inefficiencies, while high holder concentration and stable liquidity indicate potential for both price impact risk and resilient market making.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_nvdax",
      "symbol": "NVDAx",
      "name": "NVIDIA xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "referenceTicker": "NVDA",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "NVDAx",
    "premium",
    "liquidity",
    "concentration",
    "volatility",
    "price-discovery",
    "tokenized-stock",
    "dex"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T14:30:36.263Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "NVDAx trades at +8.1bps versus the NVDA reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 8.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -10.376742963410605
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.803 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 321577.80331313,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 321577.80331313,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,949,046 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 2949046,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 2948597
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 69.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.6965684026765165,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.6965684026765165
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $1,001,908 implies 0.34x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 1001908,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 438917947",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T00:50:53.119Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:bd2bd414c11f9e69e2dcef81a23d228e1ac2244d84b065cde7570a72ffa64264",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.008Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c36873bf6e047b8d128fc55cde5b84150382b3067265e615a8891a1f060b41e5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.275Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:f72315258e31cdc1d8ef60641b8115f3a332a6538f054964b68686f4e6945dcf",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:07.386Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:b9258cd7e71259d3c5d9af49c8f7d4bb0b43110723fff718cf04ac5355f8282d",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "NVDAx trades at a premium of 8.14 basis points to the NVDA reference price of $223.77, with a DEX price of $224.20.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.803 tokens, showing no material change across the 10-hour observation window.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $1,001,908 represents a 0.34x turnover ratio against total pooled liquidity of $2,949,046.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 69.66% of circulating supply, consistent with prior baseline readings.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Premium volatility has been substantial over the baseline period, spanning a 59 basis point range from -49.7 to +9.4 bps, indicating ongoing price discovery dynamics.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Data quality issues in baseline measurements",
        "Premium spikes caused by low-liquidity artifacts rather than genuine price discovery"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Despite premium fluctuations, DEX liquidity remained stable near $2.95 million across 30 pools, suggesting robust market maker commitment.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Concentrated ownership of liquidity positions",
        "Unobserved withdrawal latency that could enable rapid exit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The 69.66% supply concentration among top five holders may amplify price impact and introduces governance or coordination risks if holders are not passive liquidity pools.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Top holders are passive automated pools without governance rights",
        "Holdings are contractually restricted from coordinated action"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Current hour transactions (411) account for 3.3% of the 24-hour total (12,608), suggesting relatively steady activity without extreme temporal clustering.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005053119Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T005107008Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T005107275Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T005107386Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Non-uniform hourly distribution not captured by this snapshot",
        "Time-of-day effects that concentrate activity outside this observation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.82,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.82 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "informational",
  "limitations": [
    "Analysis limited to DEX data; no centralized exchange visibility for price comparison",
    "Top holder identities and purposes unknown; concentration risk assessment is limited",
    "10-hour baseline may not capture longer-term cyclical patterns or structural changes",
    "Premium calculation methodology relative to reference price not independently verified",
    "No visibility into market maker incentives, obligations, or capital commitment duration",
    "Snapshot timing may not be representative of peak trading periods or global session variations",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZW9KXM9VXV4MJRR",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T00:51:49.798Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T00:53:19.602Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:7aa90ce1ae21afa7344cd89d409885aca1309809cc1bf292d9c8a526e89ba7a0",
    "contentHash": "sha256:5d3405dbeb8baf51232f3de99a1430cb2614000b58d1105e2596c9191389eb1e"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/nvdax-trades-at-8-1-bps-premium-with-stable-liquidity-and-high-holder-co",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T00:53:20.282Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T00:53:20.282Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}