{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZWS3YXB6KN7NPHN", "slug": "nvdax-premium-reaches-11-5-hour-high-at-31-94-bps-2026-08-13-052201", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "NVDAx Premium Reaches 11.5-Hour High at +31.94 bps", "dek": "Tokenized NVIDIA exposure shows elevated premium, stable supply, and high concentration amid $2M liquidity", "summary": "NVDAx trades at a 31.94 bps premium to NVDA, marking the highest level in the 11.5-hour observation period. The token shows stable supply, high holder concentration at 69.72%, and moderate liquidity turnover of 0.63x despite 24h volume exceeding $1.27M.", "thesis": "The expansion of NVDAx premium to unprecedented levels in the observation window signals potential demand shifts or market inefficiencies that warrant monitoring for arbitrage opportunities and liquidity risks.", "whyItMatters": "Premium divergence in tokenized equity products affects pricing efficiency and may indicate structural issues in redemption mechanisms or unexpected demand surges that could impact holder returns.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_nvdax", "symbol": "NVDAx", "name": "NVIDIA xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "referenceTicker": "NVDA", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "NVDAx", "premium", "tokenized-equity", "liquidity", "concentration", "arbitrage" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T17:30:35.414Z", "end": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "NVDAx trades at +31.9bps versus the NVDA reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 31.9, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -1.775755398362984 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.794 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 321577.79441636, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 321577.79441636, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,004,804 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 2004804, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 2003757 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 69.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.6972079386073234, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.6972079386073234 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $1,273,944 implies 0.64x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 1273944, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 438956721", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:04.715Z", "dataHash": "sha256:6322933e5031bb02a944cd4a8387f8e2f8c039cfb380b5f4cd00977a380b32bb", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:06.825Z", "dataHash": "sha256:48ab061681a5eda9baf03ee44e7d4ca3170db4b605f1544efc3d0d81fddb4ce1", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:10.871Z", "dataHash": "sha256:57b668adeab6b382f0404eb12bf4284c635876f2edf457213e82b3392c124a72", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "NVDAx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB,Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh,XsoCS1TfEyfFhfvj8EtZ528L3CaKBDBRqRapnBbDF2W", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T05:20:55.647Z", "dataHash": "sha256:12cfba9e581eb511c13ce0f2a6dfc6cbf4ff5c3adde264f23b0c8efe00af3c2d", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "NVDAx trades at a premium of 31.941565631334903 basis points above the NVDA reference price of $223.77.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change is +3.0072850506907365%.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 69.72079386073234% of the total circulating supply of 321,577.79441636 tokens.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,004,804.30.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $1,273,943.85 represents approximately 0.63x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The current premium of 31.941565631334903 bps is the highest observed across the 11.5-hour baseline period, which ranged from -49.7236449365477 bps to +31.941565631334903 bps.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Additional baseline data showing higher premium values", "Data entry errors in baseline snapshots" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Circulating supply has remained effectively stable, decreasing by 0.01535805 tokens (0.00000478%) from the first baseline snapshot (321,577.80977441 tokens) to the current observation.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Significant supply changes in unaudited periods", "Token burn or mint events not captured" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The premium expansion may indicate increased demand for tokenized NVDA exposure or reduced arbitrage efficiency rather than fundamental changes in the reference equity.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052104715Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T052106825Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052110871Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T052055647Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Concurrent NVDA equity volatility data", "Arbitrage bot activity metrics", "Order book depth analysis showing sufficient liquidity" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.6, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "txns_h1 and txns_24h metrics are null in the current snapshot, preventing analysis of recent transaction activity trends.", "dex_price_usd is unavailable, limiting direct comparison between DEX pricing and reference pricing mechanisms.", "dexscreener data source failed (HTTP 429), potentially reducing data completeness for certain metrics.", "The 11.5-hour baseline may not capture full market cycles or longer-term premium dynamics.", "Top 5 holder concentration includes pool and custodial accounts, which may overstate true ownership concentration.", "pair_count metric is null, obscuring the number of active trading venues.", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZWS2DCPDF8PX849", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T05:21:51.291Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T05:22:01.019Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:1674dc1f22f538dd99609e51c3354819f457ed3a429fb1b30feabdf9ae2421ed", "contentHash": "sha256:1a6c493f6693db954f18a6d80c95e7a44bd2bb0e735f200a8981ea7fe063f752" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/nvdax-premium-reaches-11-5-hour-high-at-31-94-bps-2026-08-13-052201", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T05:22:01.771Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T05:22:01.771Z" }, "distribution": [] }