{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZWX8JSN8TD5ZY1H",
  "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-persistent-discount-to-reference-equity-despite-tight-li",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Trades at Persistent Discount to Reference Equity Despite Tight Liquidity",
  "dek": "The Robinhood xStock token shows a -39 basis point discount to HOOD equity, extending a pattern of volatile premium swings observed across 24 baseline snapshots over 11.5 hours.",
  "summary": "HOODx, a tokenized equity derivative tracking Robinhood (HOOD), currently trades at $94.64 versus a reference price of $95.014, representing a -38.98 basis point discount. This marks a significant shift from premiums observed in the preceding 11.5-hour window, which ranged from -223.94 bps to +72.33 bps. The token maintains $453,712 in DEX liquidity across 12 pools with 24-hour volume of $34,000, implying low 0.07x turnover. Supply remains fixed at 597,392.618 tokens with extreme concentration: the top five holders control 94.36% of supply. Transaction activity shows 171 trades in the past hour against 3,147 over 24 hours, suggesting recent acceleration in trading pace.",
  "thesis": "HOODx exhibits structural price instability relative to its reference equity, with premium/discount volatility exceeding 290 basis points across the observation window, despite stable supply and concentrated ownership that should theoretically support price alignment.",
  "whyItMatters": "For market participants, the persistent premium volatility indicates execution risk in using HOODx as a proxy for HOOD equity exposure. The extreme holder concentration creates potential for sudden liquidity events if large positions adjust.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-volatility",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "concentration-risk",
    "xstock",
    "robinhood",
    "dex-metrics",
    "market-microstructure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -39bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -39,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -3.1751337274268554
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.61845611,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.61845611,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $453,712 across 12 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 453712,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 456138
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9436445887142084,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9436445887142084
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $34,000 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 34000,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438966769",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.483Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:15f2eab721e8d21ffb72e6504309c0cc2ad8744a2cecef47bc1cbaa4535cdf29",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.833Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:44ac65b1462d962ba202be2ec4300da20998f0d0344999db1534ec5977db7d2e",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.841Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:1a83c259d8402c9e1d87126bb97fa1fc900d9e336b0c7deea3e6d7cd5b3aded8",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:da33fff3b0c28c1c6e7d37be837b234630e41c8e200cf29f0ced58cdf0a70aa7",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -38.98 basis points below the HOOD reference price of $95.014.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price feed error",
        "Stale premium calculation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The premium has swung 290+ basis points across the 11.5-hour baseline window, from -223.94 bps to +72.33 bps.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Missing intermediate snapshots",
        "Data source inconsistency between dexscreener and jupiter"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The current -38.98 bps discount represents a reversal from the +53.48 bps premium observed 30 minutes prior.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Timestamp misalignment"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Top five holders control 94.36% of circulating supply, indicating extreme ownership concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Misclassification of pool addresses as holders",
        "Custodial wallet aggregation error"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $34,000 against $453,712 in liquidity implies 0.075x turnover, suggesting limited trading activity relative to pool depth.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volume double-counting across pools",
        "Illiquid pool inclusion in liquidity calculation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Transaction frequency accelerated to 171 trades in the past hour versus an average of ~131 per hour over 24 hours.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.94,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Hour-boundary effects in transaction counting",
        "Burst activity within single block"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Supply has remained unchanged at 597,392.618 tokens across all 24 baseline observations, indicating no minting or burning activity.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "UI amount rounding masking small changes",
        "Snapshot timing missing actual mint events"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The premium volatility likely reflects low liquidity and concentrated ownership rather than fundamental divergence in equity valuation.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110483Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T063110833Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T063110841Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T063110862Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference market closure or trading halt",
        "Regulatory news affecting token specifically",
        "Oracle manipulation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.88,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.88 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.02,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline liquidity and volume data are sparse; only 4 of 24 snapshots contain non-null values, limiting trend analysis for these metrics.",
    "Premium data sources alternate between dexscreener and jupiter, potentially introducing measurement inconsistency.",
    "The 11.5-hour window captures only a single trading session; overnight and multi-day patterns are unobserved.",
    "Top holder concentration metric does not distinguish between liquidity pools, custodial accounts, and active traders.",
    "Transaction count does not distinguish trade size or direction, masking potential whale activity within aggregate figures.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZWX2JYG2VQGR1EQ",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T06:34:09.758Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T06:34:27.157Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:903d4bb768086b012bd640ec96cce0021acdfc4a09c04df205b68bd34a197aa8",
    "contentHash": "sha256:116fe3baeca86ca2993203d14a5db4efc36d92e0d1026a3aab43b6cb564c3d4f"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-persistent-discount-to-reference-equity-despite-tight-li",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T06:34:27.509Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T06:34:27.509Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}