{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZXEA73DJARPD0GJ",
  "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-77-5bps-discount-with-94-4-supply-concentration-2026-08-",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Trades at -77.5bps Discount with 94.4% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood stock trades 77 basis points below reference price amid 94.4% supply concentration and modest liquidity turnover.",
  "summary": "HOODx trades at a -77.5bps discount to HOOD equity, with 94.4% of supply held by top five accounts. $453.6k liquidity across 13 DEX pairs facilitated $29.7k in 24h volume (0.07x turnover). Hourly transactions increased to 187 from a 24-hour average of 146, while 24h price declined 0.89%.",
  "thesis": "The token trades at a material discount to its reference equity, with extreme supply concentration and low liquidity turnover indicating fragile market structure.",
  "whyItMatters": "High concentration risk and low liquidity turnover create conditions for volatile price movements and potential manipulation, while persistent discount suggests market pricing inefficiency.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "HOODx",
    "Robinhood",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "concentration-risk",
    "liquidity",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T23:31:22.727Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -77.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -77.5,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -17.607230555159067
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.61845611,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.61845611,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $453,572 across 13 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 453572,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 454896
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9443602152331716,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9443602152331716
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $29,716 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 29716,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439009932",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.274Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:1e750fb4b970d39ac5eaa4e66c3f54e14fa67facdb21567773a9d248b6beb246",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.604Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c73d1c9eb7c258080f8f9b190c12168d0c7195eb2c961ce47e2821bffb19ae99",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.615Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:139e26b3c6dace445fa5f28898ba188be8005391c2db59a29883004d5f8cbba7",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:5a098b56c76444dfcb025f6be4e41c5e300d8ec1a25348f49e22d5327387999e",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a -77.5 basis point discount to the reference HOOD equity price, a material widening from the baseline average of -17.6bps.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price feed inaccuracy",
        "Stale DEX price data",
        "Arbitrage mechanism failure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 94.4% of circulating supply, indicating extreme concentration risk.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": [
        "DEX pool addresses misclassified as holders",
        "Holder aggregation methodology error"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour volume of $29.7k represents 0.07x turnover of $453.6k pooled liquidity, suggesting modest trading activity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Liquidity mismeasurement",
        "Volume inflation from wash trading"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Current hour transactions of 187 exceed the 24-hour average of 146, indicating elevated short-term activity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Bot-driven transaction burst",
        "Small-value transaction spam"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Token price declined 0.89% over 24 hours, consistent with the observed discount to reference price.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price manipulation",
        "Exchange API data error"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Circulating supply has remained constant at 597,393 tokens throughout the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Uncaptured token lock/unlock events",
        "Supply reporting lag"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The token trades across 13 DEX pairs, suggesting moderate market fragmentation.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Inactive pairs included",
        "Double-counting across data sources"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.9,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.9 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Premium calculation depends on reference price feed accuracy and timeliness",
    "Holder concentration metric may include DEX pool addresses, potentially overstating true holder concentration",
    "24-hour volume and liquidity figures may include wash trading or non-economic activity",
    "Transaction counts do not distinguish between trade sizes or economic significance",
    "Single-day observation window limits assessment of longer-term trends",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZXE7Q0BQ2FWABKQ",
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        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:37.602Z"
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      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T11:32:26.679Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:b08b62d26687e0f5e49131068f8c72a6fd19a986d14ae098b095c16e7c89edb7",
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-77-5bps-discount-with-94-4-supply-concentration-2026-08-",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T11:32:26.861Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T11:32:26.861Z"
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  "distribution": []
}