{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZY4MTXH2MRHJAGA",
  "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-45-6bps-discount-with-94-3-supply-concentration-2026-08-",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Trades at -45.6bps Discount with 94.3% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Low liquidity turnover and declining transaction activity signal fragile market structure for Robinhood equity token.",
  "summary": "HOODx currently trades at a 45.6 basis point discount to Robinhood stock, with extreme supply concentration (94.3% held by top five accounts) and low capital turnover (7.33% of liquidity). Transaction activity has declined sharply from earlier peaks, while premium volatility remains elevated across the 11.5-hour observation window.",
  "thesis": "The combination of extreme supply concentration, low liquidity utilization, and volatile premiums creates a fragile trading environment where price discovery is vulnerable to dislocations and large holder actions.",
  "whyItMatters": "For professional traders, these conditions indicate heightened execution risk, potential for premium volatility, and limited ability to enter or exit positions without moving the market, undermining the token's utility as an equity exposure proxy.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "equity-token",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "concentration-risk",
    "premium-volatility",
    "market-structure",
    "HOODx"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -45.6bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -45.6,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -40.49754181662909
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60441429,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60441429,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $452,771 across 14 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 452771,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 453195
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9433005253021177,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9433005253021177
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $33,188 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 33188,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439066039",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:09.671Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d105250e312ece4a2b6b32073eeaf516195e3b0a2953fecb39301162d3fe16f3",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:09.998Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:95acf19b42c3991328190df0e31dd7a657b6b1c8771df690bc6c862e61bf3bfe",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.013Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:89905add48ed505dfa546322269d46edcfdc66550724de7396aef6f078f8b2b8",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:10.072Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:8ff384c75235d32a6a035c533b4463a1d9862b41928f16a18861e1abf40c82e0",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a -45.6 basis point discount to the reference HOOD equity price.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 94.33% of total supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $33,188 represents 7.33% of pooled liquidity, indicating low capital turnover.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Hourly transactions fell to 17 in the most recent period, down from peaks of 108-187 observed earlier in the 11.5-hour baseline window.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The premium has exhibited high volatility throughout the baseline period, ranging from -269.9 bps to +122.0 bps, with the current -45.6 bps reading near the lower end of this distribution.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Extreme supply concentration among top five holders creates elevated risk of price impact from large trades and potential governance capture.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Disclosure of custodial arrangements",
        "Evidence of distributed ownership behind concentrated addresses",
        "Implementation of governance safeguards"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The token's +4.62% price change over 24 hours occurred while trading at a discount to reference, suggesting divergence between DEX pricing and underlying equity movement.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109671Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T180109998Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T180110013Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T180110072Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.82,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.82 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline liquidity data contains null values from alternate data sources, creating gaps in trend analysis.",
    "Holder identities are unknown; concentrated addresses may represent custodial or pooled rather than controlling ownership.",
    "Single reference price source limits verification of premium accuracy.",
    "Only 14 trading pairs exist, limiting arbitrage pathways and price discovery mechanisms.",
    "Hourly transaction counts do not capture trade size distribution or participant composition.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZY4J0M9K0NVWJW5",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T18:01:55.451Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T18:02:42.595Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:0ca476e8b259c32ddfc1a8b9aa677898d77681b13f0e7c0d152c061e65430157",
    "contentHash": "sha256:db12cb972c6dd1ba7c3e63686e3d7fb448b59c8d7633add284d3486eee0eccb2"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-45-6bps-discount-with-94-3-supply-concentration-2026-08-",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T18:02:43.505Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T18:02:43.505Z"
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  "distribution": []
}