{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZYEY4CQ20DMF1SA",
  "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-32bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-13-2",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Trades at 32bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized equity derivative shows volatile premium dynamics and high holder concentration over 11.5-hour observation period",
  "summary": "HOODx trades at -32.1 basis points to Robinhood reference price, with 94.3% of supply held by top five accounts. $360,757 in DEX liquidity supported $86,911 in 24-hour volume, representing 0.24x turnover. Premium volatility ranged from -270bps to +122bps across the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
  "thesis": "HOODx exhibits persistent discount pricing relative to its equity reference, coupled with extreme supply concentration that may amplify price impact and premium volatility.",
  "whyItMatters": "High holder concentration creates structural liquidity risk, while volatile premiums indicate potential mispricing or market-making constraints that could affect execution quality for size.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "HOODx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "supply-concentration",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "volatility",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T09:01:29.770Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -32.1bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -32.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -31.18053917990584
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60441429,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60441429,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $360,757 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 360757,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 351276
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9429069112094549,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9429069112094549
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $86,911 implies 0.24x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 86911,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439091947",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:15.920Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:2f26a207e3b499f46fd002b143457865187edeacf6b14cad399a699b2f3ae4b1",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:16.143Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:67e2b3c335ce5b50451573b2605dfbfe83b1f68dd44f6fb72bfd0f57691dfa5c",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:20.217Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:2794ffdbb086706caf61f84937ba6da4b160e27908f772655e8d488a1691e9f8",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T21:01:03.760Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:8b861f6cfb3b7988ad041a9b94cc54f29b161d6e82e33e5390bcc4c3a068f4dc",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a discount of 32.09 basis points to the Robinhood reference price of $99.50, with a token price of $99.18.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.60441429 tokens.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $86,912 against $360,757 in pooled liquidity implies a 0.24x turnover ratio.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 94.29% of circulating supply, indicating extreme holder concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Premium volatility has been significant over the 11.5-hour baseline, ranging from -269.9bps to +122.0bps, with the current -32.1bps reading near the median of the distribution.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If baseline snapshots contain fewer than 20 valid premium observations",
        "If extreme values represent data errors rather than traded prices"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The token price increased 4.31% over the past 24 hours despite trading at a discount to reference, suggesting the reference equity appreciated faster than the token price.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If reference price updates are asynchronous with token price discovery",
        "If the 24h change calculation uses a different baseline than premium calculation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Extreme supply concentration combined with moderate liquidity turnover may amplify price impact and contribute to premium volatility.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210115920Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T210116143Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210120217Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T210103760Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "If concentrated holders are passive liquidity providers rather than active traders",
        "If top holder addresses include exchange cold wallets that do not affect circulating liquidity"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.6,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "DEX price data unavailable (dex_price_usd: null) limits cross-verification of token_price_usd",
    "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) and pair_count are not provided, constraining activity analysis",
    "Single liquidity source (jupiter) after dexscreener failure creates potential for incomplete market picture",
    "Top5 holder share includes pool and custodial accounts, which may overstate true concentration risk",
    "24-hour volume snapshot may not capture intraday liquidity dynamics visible in hourly metrics",
    "Premium calculation methodology relative to reference price is not explicitly defined",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZYEVWMYFCQAR7KN",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T21:02:10.635Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T21:02:33.156Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:73d041946f3c5b3f1517789376d185c0330e5f4b20324a96ee8cfb1aa75d8bbe",
    "contentHash": "sha256:67f4fe4244a4ca494bb4411c38290f902aabc5b66aa0e47ca99a203c179ae686"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-32bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-13-2",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T21:02:33.879Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T21:02:33.879Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}