{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZXW4M5KNMBXZ3J6",
  "slug": "hoodx-swings-to-wide-discount-as-price-sources-diverge-360bps-2026-08-13",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Swings to Wide Discount as Price Sources Diverge 360bps",
  "dek": "The Robinhood xStock token flipped from a slight premium to a 269.9 basis point discount versus the underlying equity, while Jupiter and DEX pool prices diverged sharply, flagging execution risk in thin liquidity.",
  "summary": "HOODx is currently priced at $95.628, representing a -269.9bps discount to the HOOD reference price of $98.281—a dramatic reversal from the +40.3bps premium recorded just 30 minutes prior. The discount is the widest observed across the 11.5-hour baseline period, during which premium readings ranged from -224bps to +122bps. Liquidity stands at $452,153 across 14 pools, with 24-hour volume of $30,109 implying low 0.07x turnover. A 360bps price gap between Jupiter ($95.628) and the top DEX pool ($99.069) signals material execution slippage risk. Supply remains fixed at 597,392.618 tokens, with 94.3% concentrated in the top five holder accounts.",
  "thesis": "HOODx exhibits structural fragility: wide premium volatility, thin liquidity, extreme holder concentration, and material price source divergence that elevates execution uncertainty.",
  "whyItMatters": "For traders seeking equity exposure via tokenized instruments, the current regime implies meaningful slippage and mark-to-market risk. The 360bps execution gap and low liquidity turnover suggest that size exits may significantly impact realized prices, while the sudden swing from premium to deep discount indicates reactive or fragmented market-making.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "HOODx",
    "premium-discount",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "execution-risk",
    "concentration-risk",
    "synthetic-assets",
    "dex-arbitrage"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -269.9bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -269.9,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -44.187736110539696
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.61845611,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.61845611,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $452,153 across 14 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 452153,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 454047
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9431262391451758,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9431262391451758
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $30,109 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 30109,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439044468",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.058Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:12d3f8bed0f6a19f6cc50b531ab6e1da069311b5332ebc72f8350a6f2546a76b",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.415Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ea3cd2875e75f6fbd64322c70670ee58031fcd6a2991bdd284285747d11ea037",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.427Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:823fa9d9ba05879ce0eecf10e37537f5b0d2de8abca07539acdae884ef58de10",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T15:31:05.460Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d157e6a2e1dffcfffaf6ff9b786a7e04b543b3b05a1049408943f62596a4679f",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a -269.9 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $98.281.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps data entry error",
        "reference_price_usd stale feed"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The current discount of -269.9bps represents the most negative premium observed across the 11.5-hour baseline, exceeding the prior minimum of -223.9bps recorded at 04:31 UTC.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "missing intermediate snapshots",
        "timestamp misalignment"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The premium swung from +40.3bps at 15:01 UTC to -269.9bps at 15:31 UTC, a 310 basis point reversal within 30 minutes.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "falsifiers": [
        "clock drift between measurement systems"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Price sources diverge by 360bps, with Jupiter reporting $95.628 and the top DEX pool at $99.069.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "dex_price_usd sourced from illiquid pool",
        "token_price_usd aggregation methodology change"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $30,109 against $452,153 in pooled liquidity implies 0.07x liquidity turnover.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.96,
      "falsifiers": [
        "volume double-counting across pools",
        "liquidity_usd including non-tradeable reserves"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of circulating supply, indicating extreme ownership concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "top5_holder_share calculation includes protocol-controlled liquidity as holders",
        "supply_ui_amount excludes locked tokens"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The premium volatility and sudden discount widening suggest reactive market-making or fragmented liquidity provision rather than sustained directional selling pressure.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "observed large sell order flow not captured in transaction metrics",
        "oracle latency causing reference price lag"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The 360bps price source divergence and low liquidity turnover create a regime where execution costs may substantially exceed implied premium/discount levels.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105058Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T153105415Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T153105427Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T153105460Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "arbitrageurs actively closing the price gap",
        "hidden order depth not reflected in visible liquidity"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.68,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.68 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline liquidity and volume data are sparse; only 9 of 25 snapshots report liquidity_usd, limiting trend confidence.",
    "Transaction-level data (txns_h1, txns_24h) lacks size distribution, preventing identification of whale versus retail flow.",
    "The dex_price_usd source is unspecified; it may represent a single pool rather than aggregate DEX pricing.",
    "Reference price feed latency and methodology are opaque; premium_bps calculations assume synchronous timestamping.",
    "Supply has not changed across the baseline, but token unlock schedules or minting authority are unverified.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZXVZ69KAC8XC0R9",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T15:33:36.389Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T15:34:03.127Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:44206dc4b80603f787d2ab4e13faec12190ef52f0e9c41ce94dcf05f928a6a80",
    "contentHash": "sha256:400d190e2521a17ae54241e6b00c2492813649d0bb0349825fa095ef6515ff3c"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-swings-to-wide-discount-as-price-sources-diverge-360bps-2026-08-13",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T15:34:03.699Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T15:34:03.699Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}