{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZX2E9EGT0KTKY04",
  "slug": "hoodx-swings-to-material-discount-as-price-divergence-widens-to-99bps-20",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Swings to Material Discount as Price Divergence Widens to -99bps",
  "dek": "The Robinhood equity token flipped from a +72bps premium 11.5 hours ago to a -99bps discount, with Jupiter and DEX pool prices diverging by 68bps amid thin liquidity and concentrated supply.",
  "summary": "HOODx, a tokenized representation of Robinhood (HOOD) equity, has undergone a pronounced premium reversal over the past 11.5 hours. The token shifted from trading at a +72.3bps premium to the reference equity price to a -99.3bps discount at the latest observation. This -99.3bps divergence marks a material departure from the baseline average of approximately -9.9bps. Liquidity remains constrained at $453,813 across 12 pools, with 24-hour volume of $33,829 representing only 7.5% of pooled liquidity turnover. Supply concentration is extreme, with the top five holders controlling 94.4% of the 597,392.618 token supply. A 68bps price discrepancy between Jupiter ($94.07) and the top DEX pool ($94.71) indicates fragmented price discovery. Transaction activity has moderated, with 53 transactions in the past hour compared to a 24-hour total of 3,139.",
  "thesis": "The sharp swing from premium to deep discount suggests deteriorating confidence in the token's peg mechanism or increased selling pressure against limited liquidity, rather than a fundamental repricing of the underlying equity.",
  "whyItMatters": "For market participants, the -99bps discount represents a potential arbitrage opportunity if redemption mechanisms exist, or a warning signal about the sustainability of the tokenization structure if they do not. The extreme holder concentration and thin liquidity amplify execution risk.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "concentration-risk",
    "HOODx",
    "arbitrage",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T20:01:21.889Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -99.3bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -99.3,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -9.89422030055148
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.61845611,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.61845611,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $453,813 across 12 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 453813,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 455673
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9436445887142084,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9436445887142084
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $33,829 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 33829,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438979741",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:22.795Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:22de7313e7c132a3e0861039ee1621c061a112905aa8181c5b91c51e3535668e",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.155Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ec78d9034dce4211af3cd1bcaaf82c994ed29e33e2887de3fe08ad2e72d8de71",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.164Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:5f8e0ea0a4f0217dbd12078de8d2ce310c6c5d39df2cf56498755199430b24fa",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T08:01:23.207Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c763bf257ea6ef5903196c4064a8eabf3dd0c628f6d0fb342a0abcc66881aefc",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a -99.33046569883284 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $95.014, with the token priced at $94.0702215132091.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The premium has reversed from +72.3bps observed 11.5 hours ago to the current -99.3bps, representing a swing of approximately -171.6bps.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline premium_bps value of 72.33468564067446 is misrecorded or non-comparable due to different reference price sources"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The current -99.3bps premium represents a material divergence from the 11.5-hour baseline average of approximately -9.9bps.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Baseline calculations exclude outliers that would materially alter the average",
        "Reference price source changed during the baseline period"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Jupiter's quoted price of $94.0702215132091 diverges from the top DEX pool price of $94.71 by 68 basis points, indicating fragmented price discovery.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The top five token holders control 94.36445887142084% of total supply, indicating extreme ownership concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $33,829.12 against $453,813.40 in pooled liquidity implies a 7.5% liquidity turnover ratio.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Volume and liquidity figures sourced from different pool populations",
        "Double-counting of volume across pools"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Hourly transaction count has declined to 53 from levels exceeding 200 in prior baseline periods, suggesting moderating activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "txns_h1 data missing for several baseline periods prevents valid comparison",
        "Transaction count definition changed (e.g., inclusion/exclusion of failed transactions)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The premium reversal and price fragmentation may reflect deteriorating arbitrage efficiency or increased selling pressure against constrained liquidity, though the specific mechanism remains unverified.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080122795Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T080123155Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T080123164Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T080123207Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Redemption window or collateral changes occurred",
        "Reference price source experienced latency or error",
        "Large single seller with price-insensitive execution"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.66,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.66 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline liquidity and volume data are sparse, with many observations null, limiting trend analysis for these metrics.",
    "The 11.5-hour baseline may be insufficient to establish stable statistical properties for premium behavior.",
    "Price source conflicts between Jupiter and DEX pools are noted but not resolved; the true executable price remains uncertain.",
    "Transaction count methodology (inclusion criteria, chain coverage) is not specified and may vary across observations.",
    "No data on redemption mechanisms, collateralization, or issuer actions that could explain the premium swing.",
    "Holder concentration data does not distinguish between pool addresses, custodial accounts, and beneficial owners.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZX27S53AZQF6BND",
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T08:04:00.886Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T08:04:56.731Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:dbf271518292d00fdae8e4ab4218bde04453ee213c55b07993bbd3ca90b5f55f",
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-swings-to-material-discount-as-price-divergence-widens-to-99bps-20",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T08:04:57.424Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T08:04:57.424Z"
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  "distribution": []
}