{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZY83H0MX0P3QATM",
  "slug": "hoodx-swings-from-discount-to-premium-as-concentrated-supply-anchors-pri",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Swings from Discount to Premium as Concentrated Supply Anchors Price",
  "dek": "The Robinhood equity token reversed from a 39 bps discount to a 37 bps premium over 11.5 hours, with 94.3% supply concentration in five accounts constraining price discovery and liquidity depth.",
  "summary": "HOODx, a tokenized Robinhood equity derivative, exhibits significant premium volatility relative to its underlying reference price, swinging from a -39 bps discount to a +37 bps premium across 24 baseline observations spanning 11.5 hours. Current metrics show the token trading at $98.91 against a $98.55 reference, with $454,460 in DEX liquidity across 14 pools and $33,150 in 24-hour volume. The extreme supply concentration—94.3% held by five addresses—creates structural constraints on market depth and price efficiency. Transaction activity has collapsed to 24 trades in the past hour from peaks above 180, suggesting reduced market participation despite the premium convergence.",
  "thesis": "HOODx premium volatility reflects structural illiquidity from concentrated supply rather than informed price discovery, with the current premium likely unsustainable given low turnover and thin participation.",
  "whyItMatters": "For institutional participants, the 37 bps premium represents execution cost uncertainty; for market makers, the 94.3% supply concentration signals inventory risk and potential manipulation vulnerability.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "xstock",
    "premium-arbitrage",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "supply-concentration",
    "robinhood",
    "dex-metrics",
    "market-microstructure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T07:01:24.647Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at +36.6bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 36.6,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -38.994553534865695
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60441429,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60441429,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $454,460 across 14 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 454460,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 453411
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9433005253021177,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9433005253021177
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $33,150 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 33150,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439074687",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:08.751Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:eb3ce4535e0be1633f626646ac4ab5141ef0e61ea658b8c44dc1513ec52b058b",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.076Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:b064098b08ad2086545bddaf24c83c1647632527bfd2d63ed806f4e77efde529",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.086Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d04ca2ece7d8fd1371143cd8cbdbc36eb5a6f679f8e4e46bd9e687fda4003f62",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T19:01:09.178Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:48b2f5796ac3082b085a293c292553eb6a71ce01f8d5ea3ab337bcc48c793bb9",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Current token price of $98.91 exceeds the reference price of $98.55 by 36.6 bps.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 94.33% of circulating supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $33,150 represents 0.073x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Liquidity figure includes non-tradeable reserves"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Hourly transactions collapsed from 187 at 11:31 to 24 at 19:01, an 87% decline.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Data source switching artifacts",
        "Hour-boundary effects"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Supply has remained effectively unchanged at 597,392.60 tokens across all observations.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The premium reversal suggests short-term demand pressure rather than fundamental repricing, given stagnant supply and declining participation.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Unobserved off-chain order flow",
        "Reference market closure effects",
        "Large wallet rebalancing"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Extreme holder concentration enables single-actor price influence, explaining premium volatility without proportional volume.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190108751Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T190109076Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T190109086Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T190109178Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Top holders are passive custodial contracts",
        "Premium moves correlate with reference market hours",
        "Arbitrageurs maintain tight bounds in practice"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.71,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.71 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_failures",
        "contribution": -0.15,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) failed independent verification."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline lacks consistent liquidity and volume coverage; 11 of 24 snapshots omit these metrics entirely.",
    "Reference price source and update frequency are unspecified, affecting premium calculation reliability.",
    "Hourly transaction counts do not distinguish trade size or direction, masking participation quality.",
    "DEX price ($98.67) diverges from reported token price ($98.91); pricing methodology is unexplained.",
    "No data on borrow costs, funding rates, or redemption mechanisms that would anchor long-term premium.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZY7ZTM514YPWJQ5",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T19:02:40.294Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T19:03:09.884Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:195fefbcf2699805d35c0dfeae38b9e315b4609d9fde6620c818c4f9c49e79bd",
    "contentHash": "sha256:f4145a833041ac6fbd4422fe442f5c813137fbff03bd65612d79e4fa81fd8a07"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-swings-from-discount-to-premium-as-concentrated-supply-anchors-pri",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T19:03:10.612Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T19:03:10.612Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}