{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZVM0PCTRSK0JMTS",
  "slug": "hoodx-robinhood-xstock-hoodx-swings-to-discount-as-reference-premium-inv",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "Robinhood xStock (HOODx) Swings to Discount as Reference Premium Inverts",
  "dek": "HOODx flipped from a positive premium to a 52-basis-point discount against HOOD equity within 30 minutes, while concentrated supply and modest liquidity remain structural constants.",
  "summary": "The tokenized equity derivative HOODx shifted from trading at a premium to a discount relative to its underlying HOOD reference price between 18:01 and 18:31 UTC. The current discount of 52.07 bps contrasts with a +17.25 bps premium recorded just 30 minutes prior. Supply is fixed at 597,392.618 tokens with 94.41% held by the top five addresses, and DEX liquidity of $455,641 across 13 pools supports 24-hour volume of $130,597, implying 0.29x liquidity turnover.",
  "thesis": "A rapid reversal in the HOODx premium from positive to negative territory indicates shifting market sentiment or arbitrage flow without corresponding changes in supply or holder concentration.",
  "whyItMatters": "Premium inversions in tokenized equity products signal potential dislocation between on-chain and traditional market pricing, raising questions about arbitrage efficiency and market maker positioning.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "HOOD",
    "xStock",
    "concentrated-supply",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "arbitrage",
    "market-microstructure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T17:40:35.048Z",
    "end": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -52.1bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -52.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -4.246878443816439
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.61845691,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.61845691,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $455,641 across 13 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 455641,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 455641
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9440797465219606,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9440797465219606
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $130,597 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 130597,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438863534",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:07.827Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:7095ef9dd7a5e7c72c8e086a97c7f6d39e21949a25770d4d6af61d820abb21b0",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.194Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:5fbcbc76e46dc8dba9f8e11da7f8bf363b24b18101861ab2204b6cdaefbaa12e",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.495Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a6bc3aafe63ad5de0524793a56086787f481c86c47a78f08a4b6b485fcd6ae57",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:31:21.586Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:d90e4a705a066f96133d5d055468faff2098bef5765bdb3df76594964cdb0a62",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a 52.07 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $94.76, with a token price of $94.27.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The premium shifted from +17.25 bps at 18:01 UTC to -52.07 bps at 18:31 UTC, a swing of 69.32 basis points.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Top five token holders control 94.41% of circulating supply, indicating extreme ownership concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $130,597 against $455,641 in liquidity implies 0.29x liquidity turnover.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Transaction frequency declined from 231 in the hour to 18:01 to 156 in the hour to 18:31, suggesting reduced market activity coinciding with the premium inversion.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Transaction count methodology changed between observations",
        "Hourly window does not capture all relevant trading activity"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The premium inversion may reflect arbitrage pressure or repositioning by concentrated holders rather than broad-based selling.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price feed experienced latency or error",
        "New liquidity entered and exited within the 30-minute window",
        "Off-chain hedging flows unrelated to on-chain holders"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Supply has remained unchanged at 597,392.618 tokens across all three baseline observations spanning 51 minutes.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183107827Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T183121194Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T183121495Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T183121586Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.81,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.81 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.03,
        "explanation": "3 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline spans only 51 minutes across three points, insufficient for trend analysis or rate calculation",
    "Single prior premium observation (18:01) limits confidence in identifying the inversion trigger",
    "Liquidity USD values are pool-derived estimates with unknown composition across the 13 pairs",
    "Transaction counts are hourly snapshots, not continuous flow data",
    "No visibility into off-chain HOOD equity trading that could drive arbitrage behavior",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZVKWHW60MM75Q9S",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-12T18:33:14.981Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-12T18:33:36.982Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:58715afae136e3594ad2cc0b434b7458916b9808308bcb9a6e7d8f09301e55bd",
    "contentHash": "sha256:abb6a54d0fb16e6a0c000ed6ae1b432869bfd5d146f922c78a65561cf8e9c253"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-robinhood-xstock-hoodx-swings-to-discount-as-reference-premium-inv",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-12T18:33:37.434Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-12T18:33:37.434Z"
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  "distribution": []
}