{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101M0105MAQAZN4WPTX", "slug": "hoodx-premium-surges-to-41bps-as-liquidity-contracts-13-from-daily-peak-", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Premium Surges to +41bps as Liquidity Contracts 13% from Daily Peak", "dek": "Tokenized equity derivative shows elevated premium and declining DEX depth amid concentrated supply", "summary": "HOODx trades at a 40.75bps premium to HOOD equity, up from a -10.65bps baseline, while DEX liquidity fell to $309k. 93.9% supply concentration among top 5 holders coincides with -3.46% daily price performance and 0.29x liquidity turnover.", "thesis": "The sharp premium expansion and liquidity contraction suggest shifting arbitrage dynamics and potential market maker repositioning in a highly concentrated tokenized equity market.", "whyItMatters": "Premium volatility indicates inefficient price discovery that may expose traders to execution risk and mispricing relative to underlying equity.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "tokenized-equity", "premium-arbitrage", "liquidity-risk", "supply-concentration", "HOODx", "market-structure" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-14T08:31:16.074Z", "end": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at +40.8bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 40.8, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -10.654234965605804 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60336707, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60336707, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $309,406 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 309406, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 333034 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9390886514009091, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9390886514009091 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $90,862 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 90862, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439296994", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:08.050Z", "dataHash": "sha256:010f467d0f2a229e8c2b22a3cd57987b49abeb21f000af3b923f92d92374e159", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:08.378Z", "dataHash": "sha256:f67ece11197373362460580cf2c4217beefab390e8cb4b261c05361f32fd2cc6", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:11.493Z", "dataHash": "sha256:1abfb7dc099286ee36db55cfff570b89785ec21fac55173d31b48e31cf2456c4", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T20:40:55.759Z", "dataHash": "sha256:518f75d44f149945a5f8457c96cfa0d24b3edb7d675b394f9fdca1c15cd58236", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a premium of 40.75 basis points above the HOOD reference price of $95.4869, with a DEX token price of $95.8761.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The token price has declined 3.46% over the past 24 hours.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 93.91% of the circulating supply of 597,392.603 tokens.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $90,862 represents 0.29x turnover of current pooled liquidity ($309,406).", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The premium has increased from a baseline average of -10.65 bps to +40.75 bps over the 11.5-hour observation period, indicating a shift in market sentiment or arbitrage dynamics.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "premium_bps returns to negative territory in subsequent observations", "reference_price_usd adjusts upward to narrow the gap" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Liquidity has contracted by 12.8% from the daily peak of $354,941 to current levels of $309,406, suggesting reduced market maker commitment or capital efficiency changes.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "liquidity_usd rebounds above $340k in next 6 hours", "volume_24h_usd increases proportionally to offset liquidity decline" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The extreme supply concentration (93.9% held by top 5 accounts) may amplify price volatility and premium deviations, as large holders can disproportionately influence DEX pricing.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "top5_holder_share decreases below 85% while premium volatility remains unchanged", "on-chain analysis reveals top holders are inactive liquidity pools rather than active traders" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The pattern of null liquidity_usd and volume_24h_usd values in dexscreener-sourced snapshots, contrasted with consistent Jupiter-sourced data, suggests Jupiter is the more reliable feed for this pair.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108050Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T204108378Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204111493Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T204055759Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "future snapshots successfully populate dexscreener-sourced metrics", "jupiter-sourced metrics begin showing systematic gaps" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.58, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.58 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "txns_h1 and txns_24h metrics are unavailable, limiting transaction flow analysis", "dex_price_usd is null, preventing cross-source price validation", "pair_count is unavailable, obscuring the number of active trading venues", "Supply concentration of 93.9% among top 5 holders creates centralized control risk", "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, insufficient for robust trend validation", "Dexscreener API failures (HTTP 429) indicate potential ongoing data reliability issues", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01M0103Q8B6REQ9394", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T20:41:46.165Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T20:42:13.294Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:063bd01848dcae7e63f1c6315d1f243ed53db70edf2fb15dcdee7a6d743b0fe9", "contentHash": "sha256:102b5e8dc89c6125ad2f4575c017c2fa2b27ee07a31552d524f44634711b2f6e" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-surges-to-41bps-as-liquidity-contracts-13-from-daily-peak-", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T20:42:14.231Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T20:42:14.231Z" }, "distribution": [] }