{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M01FKQANNGDY7DCC",
  "slug": "hoodx-premium-surges-to-242bps-amid-concentrated-supply-and-slowing-acti",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Premium Surges to 242bps Amid Concentrated Supply and Slowing Activity",
  "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood asset trades at 2.4% premium with 94% supply held by top five accounts and liquidity turnover of 0.11x",
  "summary": "HOODx trades at a 241.79bps premium to HOOD, expanding significantly from baseline levels. Top five holders control 93.9% of supply. Low liquidity turnover (0.11x) and recent transaction slowdown suggest structural inefficiencies.",
  "thesis": "The 241.79bps premium reflects structural market inefficiencies driven by extreme holder concentration and limited arbitrage capacity.",
  "whyItMatters": "Persistent premiums in tokenized equity markets indicate insufficient arbitrage mechanisms, creating potential mispricing risks for institutional participants.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "concentration-risk",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "arbitrage-inefficiency"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T13:11:13.909Z",
    "end": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at +241.8bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 241.8,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 24.572099206594967
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60336707,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60336707,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $449,016 across 14 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 449016,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 459097
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.939088476367557,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.939088476367557
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $48,338 implies 0.11x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 48338,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439335928",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.554Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:f653ac68df613fdf84d220f38eca3eac09131117cedd1fa07628ee84b2fb8ea5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.787Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:b9ac7b202eece7e5de59716687c0d51e5e89a42e7e4d88fb27c1b2debc26015b",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.794Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:fc6f19f1dc8154a96eb1ab3e252fbf989318137332fb54b5c9030673bdde3109",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:03.829Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:6b43d93a25ba8e2761e92aa0da101a673fef19d0f26489ad97c7c40b269fc679",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a 241.79 basis point premium to the Robinhood reference price, representing a significant expansion from baseline levels that ranged between -92.7 and +44.6 bps over the prior 11.5 hours.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.91% of the 597,392.603 token circulating supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Extreme holder concentration indicates limited free float, which may amplify price volatility and constrain arbitrage efficiency.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Verification that top holders are primarily DEX liquidity pools rather than concentrated whale wallets"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "DEX liquidity of $449,015.84 across 14 pools combined with 24-hour volume of $48,338.29 yields a 0.11x liquidity turnover ratio, indicating low capital efficiency.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Hourly transactions have slowed to 24, substantially below the 24-hour average of 75.7 transactions per hour.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "A 140 basis point price discrepancy exists between Jupiter's $97.83 quote and the top pool's $96.46 price, signaling potential oracle or liquidity fragmentation issues.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The persistent 241.79bps premium reflects structural market inefficiencies driven by concentrated ownership, low liquidity turnover, and limited arbitrage capacity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103554Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T011103787Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T011103794Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T011103829Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Rapid premium convergence following increased liquidity provision",
        "Holder distribution reducing top5_holder_share below 80%"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.68,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.68 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Limited baseline history (11.5 hours) constrains trend reliability",
    "Holder identities unknown: top five accounts could be liquidity pools or custodial wallets",
    "No visibility into off-chain arbitrage mechanisms or CEX activity",
    "Price conflict between Jupiter and top pool suggests potential oracle or liquidity issues",
    "Single asset snapshot: conclusions may not generalize to other tokenized equities",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M01FHW2KGDC19KC3",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T01:11:50.357Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T01:12:04.143Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:7ea7b7c0072b9922888e8663a3c2f8838c32e5cbd677125704cab1bbb9517b26",
    "contentHash": "sha256:91c65aa1aabf8357dd52884e0885b48bef8d2e628cf136a68ad8db26e9f2e69e"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-surges-to-242bps-amid-concentrated-supply-and-slowing-acti",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T01:12:04.693Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T01:12:04.693Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}