{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M01DWY6Y69P7F8R2",
  "slug": "hoodx-premium-spikes-to-236bps-amid-extreme-supply-concentration-2026-08",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Premium Spikes to 236bps Amid Extreme Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood equity shows signs of market stress with 94% supply held by top five accounts and collapsing hourly transaction volume.",
  "summary": "HOODx trades at a 235.7 basis point premium to HOOD equity, marking a dramatic departure from its 11.5-hour baseline. The token exhibits extreme supply concentration with 93.9% held by five accounts, modest DEX liquidity of $454,555 across 15 pools, and a sudden 90% drop in hourly transactions from 184 to 18. These factors combined with a 134 bps cross-market price discrepancy indicate significant market dislocation and potential manipulation risk.",
  "thesis": "The sudden premium expansion, extreme supply concentration, and collapsing transaction activity signal acute market dislocation and elevated manipulation risk for HOODx.",
  "whyItMatters": "These conditions threaten price reliability and may expose holders to amplified volatility, undermining the token's utility as an equity proxy and potentially triggering liquidity crises during stress events.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "HOODx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "supply-concentration",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "market-structure",
    "tokenized-equity"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T12:41:12.897Z",
    "end": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at +235.7bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 235.7,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 14.140673054544601
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60336707,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60336707,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $454,555 across 15 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 454555,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 461113
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.939088476367557,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.939088476367557
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $48,553 implies 0.11x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 48553,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439331582",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:03.996Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a69dbeba665c9bdc6acdb20c8f586ca92b7f02852c3eb4b725a90a8ac2c0131b",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.368Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:6e80193df3d96f457c4e40cb5a6d93fb4fe4fd08097992d7b92e0c099a4afb30",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.483Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:e495e0780cbed0af18a5ca3c2a9ebf8741d30c83043ec801db7d4469e97ba503",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:04.509Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c2fccbc62980f8066f07a2ee6562534fa2d36ab9e34774d5080c89b236eea770",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at a premium of 235.7 basis points above the reference HOOD equity price, representing a sharp departure from the 11.5-hour baseline range of -92.7 to +44.6 bps.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens, with the top five holders controlling 93.9% of supply, indicating extreme concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "DEX liquidity totals $454,555 across 15 pools, with 24-hour volume of $48,553 yielding a low 0.11x turnover ratio.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Hourly transactions collapsed from 184 to 18 between the prior snapshot and current observation, a 90% decline.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The combination of extreme supply concentration, modest liquidity, and sudden premium spike suggests heightened risk of market manipulation and price instability.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The 134 bps price divergence between Jupiter ($97.77) and the top pool ($96.46) reflects liquidity fragmentation that may persist due to low transaction velocity and concentrated supply.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004103996Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T004104368Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T004104483Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T004104509Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Price discrepancy resolves within 6 hours without volume increase",
        "Hourly transaction count returns above 100",
        "On-chain analysis reveals top five holders are DEX pools"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.68,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.68 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
        "contribution": -0.1,
        "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Analysis limited to 11.5-hour baseline; longer-term trends unknown",
    "Identity and intent of top five holders cannot be determined from holder share metric alone",
    "Reference price sourcing methodology and update frequency are undisclosed",
    "Metrics rely on Jupiter and Dexscreener data sources without independent verification",
    "No information available on token minting mechanics or supply adjustment protocols",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M01DTYXS0RW6PM3A",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T00:41:49.442Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T00:42:08.946Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:54d8fa8b45e0426eed72ea2fb60af4e849a8068201eecdea6e6142254bf079c6",
    "contentHash": "sha256:2a9b07672d404eaeac70ab1cd2ed6f1099582d7b81838c810a923ecb3b096019"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-spikes-to-236bps-amid-extreme-supply-concentration-2026-08",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:42:09.502Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T00:42:09.502Z"
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  "distribution": []
}