{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZYSAW53BETTFY4A", "slug": "hoodx-premium-reverses-to-40bps-as-liquidity-stabilizes-near-473k-2026-0", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Premium Reverses to 40bps as Liquidity Stabilizes Near $473K", "dek": "The Robinhood xStock flipped from a -28bps discount to a +40bps premium over 11.5 hours, with liquidity holding steady and price sources diverging 77bps.", "summary": "HOODx, the tokenized Robinhood equity derivative, shifted from trading at a discount to the underlying HOOD equity to a modest premium. Over the 11.5-hour baseline period, the premium_bps swung from -173.97bps to +40.06bps, with the most recent observation showing token_price_usd at $99.95885790527124 versus reference_price_usd of $99.56. Liquidity_usd of $473,248.42999999993 has remained stable across 18 pools, though volume_24h_usd of $39,358.14 implies thin velocity at 0.08x liquidity turnover. The concentration risk persists with top5_holder_share at 0.9429403909534159. A 77bps price gap between Jupiter and top-pool execution creates execution uncertainty.", "thesis": "HOODx has transitioned from persistent discounting to modest premium pricing, suggesting reduced selling pressure or improved bid-side interest, though price source fragmentation and concentrated supply warrant caution.", "whyItMatters": "Premium dynamics in tokenized equities signal market sentiment and arbitrage efficiency; the reversal from discount to premium, combined with stable liquidity but thin volume, indicates potential repositioning rather than sustained demand.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "tokenized-equity", "HOODx", "premium-arbitrage", "concentration-risk", "liquidity-analysis", "price-fragmentation" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-13T12:01:23.217Z", "end": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at +40.1bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 40.1, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -28.32446192733453 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60441429, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60441429, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $473,248 across 18 pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 473248, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 462457 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9429403909534159, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9429403909534159 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $39,358 implies 0.08x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 39358, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439117845", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:04.791Z", "dataHash": "sha256:65af8d75c2fdeeaa82648e4ba2611e9be34324b7c78b57cb8e66e6b66c0fc267", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.107Z", "dataHash": "sha256:1a69c9f794291a85966cec0db58651082e05d273d67a04e7259a6279068d10da", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "sourceId": "dexscreener", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.115Z", "dataHash": "sha256:4ae3747535ebde7c4ea0c58987cbc78ea94a829aa160915460adcbde475eabc6", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:05.142Z", "dataHash": "sha256:81504346969f5dc4784b22cba5852077f1041ad77565780b9bd8144d1bdcad97", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a premium_bps of 40.062063606995025 to the underlying HOOD equity reference price, reversing from a baseline average discount of approximately -28.32446192733453 bps.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.95, "falsifiers": [ "reference_price_usd stale or incorrect", "premium_bps calculation error" ] }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The 24-hour price_change_24h_pct of 5.162864058196431 in HOODx outpaced the underlying equity movement, compressing the prior discount.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "underlying equity moved more than reported", "price_change_24h_pct sampled at different interval" ] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Liquidity_usd of $473,248.42999999993 across pair_count of 18 pools has remained within a narrow $22K band ($452K-$475K) over the baseline period, indicating sticky market maker commitment.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "liquidity composition changed materially between snapshots", "single pool dominance masked aggregate stability" ] }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "The top5_holder_share of 0.9429403909534159 implies concentrated supply with limited free float, amplifying price impact from modest flow shifts.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "top 5 holders include custodial accounts representing many beneficial owners", "holder composition changed significantly in last hour" ] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The 77bps gap between token_price_usd ($99.95885790527124) and dex_price_usd ($99.19) reflects execution venue fragmentation, with Jupiter quoting tighter than on-chain pools.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "dex_price_usd drawn from illiquid pool", "Jupiter quote stale or simulated" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Volume_24h_usd of $39,358.14 against liquidity_usd of $473,248.42999999993 yields 0.083x daily turnover, suggesting the premium shift was not driven by high-conviction flow but rather by order book repositioning.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.8, "falsifiers": [ "volume_24h_usd undercounted due to API gaps", "liquidity_usd overstated by uncommitted depth" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Txns_h1 of 6 versus txns_24h of 2598 indicates sharply declining intraday activity, with the premium emerging during a low-volume regime that may lack validating follow-through.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ " txns_h1 timing misaligned with hour boundary", "batch transactions undercounted in txns_h1" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The premium compression from -173.97bps to +40.06bps over 11.5 hours may reflect closing of short positions or arbitrage convergence rather than directional bullish positioning, given the thin volume context.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000104791Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T000105107Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T000105115Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T000105142Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "on-chain borrow rates show no short covering", "underlying equity moved >5% creating mechanical premium" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.62, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.24, "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "cross_venue_conflicts", "contribution": -0.1, "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.1, "explanation": "6 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "Baseline liquidity data has gaps (9 of 24 snapshots null) limiting trend certainty", "txns_h1 and txns_24h lack timestamp precision for intraday pattern validation", "Top 5 holder identities unknown—could include protocol treasuries or multi-user custody", "Price source conflict resolution methodology not specified", "No on-chain borrow/lending data to validate short-interest hypothesis", "Reference price provenance and update frequency unclear for a 24/5 equity", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZYS50SNM2HR4CEP", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T00:03:39.990Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T00:04:15.851Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:e66115d70772d1c709bd15e93cdf7341aeac1f0e8d245d7b7cf7074b0ea4b003", "contentHash": "sha256:05b213feb855863405328303595837283e202ac5323ecadf695f927522c4b95b" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-reverses-to-40bps-as-liquidity-stabilizes-near-473k-2026-0", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T00:04:17.187Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T00:04:17.187Z" }, "distribution": [] }