{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZY6D50CHX2AF66A",
  "slug": "hoodx-premium-narrows-to-27bps-as-liquidity-stabilizes-near-455k-2026-08",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Premium Narrows to -27bps as Liquidity Stabilizes Near $455K",
  "dek": "The Robinhood xStock token has tightened its discount to the equity reference after volatile premium swings across 11.5 hours, with concentrated supply and thin hourly transaction flow raising execution concerns.",
  "summary": "HOODx currently trades at a -27.3 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price, a notable recovery from the -269.9bps trough observed 3 hours prior. Over the 11.5-hour baseline, the premium has oscillated between +122bps and -270bps, demonstrating significant intraday volatility in the token's pricing relative to underlying equity. Supply remains effectively unchanged at 597,392.6 tokens, with 94.33% held by the top five addresses indicating extreme concentration. DEX liquidity of $454,601 across 14 pools supports only modest activity, evidenced by $33,179 in 24-hour volume and merely 15 transactions in the past hour. The supply concentration and low turnover create conditions where moderate order flow could materially impact pricing.",
  "thesis": "HOODx exhibits structural fragility despite recent premium stabilization, with extreme holder concentration and thin liquidity creating asymmetric execution risk that could amplify price deviations from the equity reference.",
  "whyItMatters": "For traders seeking equity exposure through tokenized instruments, the combination of 94% supply concentration and 0.07x daily liquidity turnover signals potential for significant slippage and unpredictable premium behavior that undermines the arbitrage mechanism's reliability.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "xStock",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "liquidity-risk",
    "concentration-risk",
    "premium-volatility",
    "HOOD",
    "Robinhood"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T06:31:10.862Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -27.3bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -27.3,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -40.01093073360412
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60441429,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60441429,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $454,601 across 14 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 454601,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 453294
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9433005253021177,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9433005253021177
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $33,179 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 33179,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439070358",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:04.985Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:bf9490fde16df4103db678aea7e042dafea12f7b0b9efc83b17af792dfc6cbc4",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.291Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:953b12c345735187e9217f750de18db1955e4dbd7ccae7053b1382bf91062a85",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.302Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:6ed0479b14bce80768d713bae22e3a1616260b9793b14560ee6ea3387e43bad4",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T18:31:05.360Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:ab1efb507a6d59366a01789d8c162530e798e44c98b4bb0cd20c4a8ea9406405",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -27.3 basis points versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The premium has ranged from +122.0bps to -269.9bps over the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The top five holders control 94.33% of circulating supply.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $33,179 represents 0.073x turnover of the $454,601 in pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Only 15 transactions occurred in the past hour despite 24-hour transaction count of 3,256.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Supply has remained effectively static, decreasing by 0.000002% (0.014 tokens) from the baseline opening.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": []
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The current premium of -27.3bps represents a 243bps improvement from the -269.9bps nadir 3 hours prior, suggesting temporary reversion rather than fundamental stabilization.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Reference price lag or staleness",
        "Coordinated buying by concentrated holders",
        "Arbitrageur intervention that may not persist"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Extreme holder concentration combined with sub-0.1x liquidity turnover creates conditions where single-entity flows could drive 100+ bps premium swings.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183104985Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T183105291Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T183105302Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T183105360Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Top holders are passive liquidity providers not actively trading",
        "DEX routing fragmentation masks true depth",
        "Cross-exchange arbitrage capacity is larger than visible"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.86,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.86 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Hourly transaction data is sparse for most baseline snapshots, limiting assessment of activity trend direction",
    "DEX price ($98.67) and reference price ($98.58) show minor divergence that may indicate feed timing differences",
    "Liquidity USD figures lack pool-level granularity, obscuring depth distribution across the 14 pools",
    "No data on borrow costs or funding rates that would constrain arbitrage efficiency",
    "Baseline does not capture pre-market or after-hours equity price action that could explain premium volatility",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZY68S2S7TCNK3CB",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T18:33:14.981Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T18:33:28.286Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:fb9f5c840e8565dbd50fae8fbe5cf5797f98da51ac535241bbb16b7dd8746407",
    "contentHash": "sha256:960521c2123a3ef5c47a9884871d2d47076e763ee07c975f568933ea917b1136"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-premium-narrows-to-27bps-as-liquidity-stabilizes-near-455k-2026-08",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T18:33:28.844Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T18:33:28.844Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}