{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M00NZJKEB32A0AZM",
  "slug": "hoodx-discount-widens-to-61bps-as-liquidity-contracts-and-volume-decline",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "HOODx Discount Widens to -61bps as Liquidity Contracts and Volume Declines",
  "dek": "The Robinhood equity token HOODx has moved from a brief premium to a steep discount versus its reference price, with liquidity down 6.8% from 11.7-hour highs and 24-hour volume falling 26% to $80,415.",
  "summary": "HOODx, a tokenized representation of Robinhood equity, currently trades at $96.64 versus a reference price of $97.235, representing a -61.1 basis point discount. This marks a reversal from premiums observed earlier in the 11.7-hour baseline period, when the token briefly traded at +36.1bps and +14.9bps above reference. Liquidity has contracted to $330,322 from a baseline high of $354,941, while 24-hour volume of $80,415 represents a 26% decline from baseline peaks. Supply remains stable at approximately 597,393 tokens, with top 5 holders controlling 93.9% of circulation. The token exhibits high concentration risk and significant premium volatility, with the discount now exceeding twice the baseline average of -24.4bps.",
  "thesis": "HOODx has transitioned from intermittent premium trading to sustained discount pricing, with deteriorating liquidity and volume suggesting reduced market maker engagement or shifting demand dynamics for this equity-backed token.",
  "whyItMatters": "The widening discount and contracting liquidity indicate potential stress in the arbitrage mechanism that should keep tokenized equity prices aligned with underlying securities, raising execution risk for holders and questions about market structure sustainability.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_hoodx",
      "symbol": "HOODx",
      "name": "Robinhood xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "HOODx",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "Robinhood",
    "premium-discount",
    "liquidity",
    "concentration-risk",
    "xStock",
    "Solana"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T05:31:12.446Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "HOODx trades at -61.1bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": -61.1,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -24.43332043680991
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 597392.60336707,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 597392.60336707,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $330,322 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 330322,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 344526
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.9392882236279472,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.9392882236279472
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $80,415 implies 0.24x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 80415,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439270978",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:08.358Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:e5135c41409a9b0c85ddf8387c4d5b47ab24a968948cd62eab6f66348a8308b0",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:08.699Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c90842c5a4fc8155c41bba157ba91f8ab37f3c10a2100a0e93db925a2afe45e0",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:41:12.801Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:7ffa3908ff015c9d74201d6ed86a41928f7940a39f50cc4d4c3911344c23bbdc",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T17:40:55.788Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:42b39eae1aa9a13d99fa90d38dbbf21b40cb525655a75d129d492960199ca238",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a -61.1 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $97.235, with the token price at $96.64043934440072.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps data error",
        "reference price feed stale"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The current -61.1bps discount represents a widening from the 11.7-hour baseline average of -24.4bps, with the baseline spanning 24 observations from 06:01 to 17:41 UTC.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "falsifiers": [
        "baseline calculation error",
        "non-representative sampling period"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Liquidity has declined 6.8% from the baseline maximum of $354,940.76 (observed at 11:11 UTC) to the current $330,322.39.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "falsifiers": [
        "pool data source inconsistency between Jupiter and DexScreener",
        "missing liquidity data points in baseline"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "24-hour volume of $80,415.45 represents a 26.0% decline from the baseline peak of $109,061.62 observed at 11:11 UTC.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "falsifiers": [
        "volume calculation methodology differences across data sources",
        "incomplete trade coverage"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The top 5 token holders control 93.93% of supply, indicating extreme concentration risk with limited free float for price discovery.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "falsifiers": [
        "misclassification of pool addresses as holders",
        "custodial accounting errors"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Supply has remained effectively unchanged at 597,392.603 tokens across the entire 11.7-hour baseline period, with no observable minting or burning activity.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "falsifiers": [
        "supply tracking precision limitations",
        "unobserved off-chain collateral adjustments"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The token exhibited significant premium volatility during the baseline period, ranging from -92.7bps to +36.1bps, suggesting unstable arbitrage dynamics or intermittent demand shocks.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "reference price feed delays causing artificial volatility",
        "low liquidity causing measurement noise"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The shift from premium to discount pricing, combined with declining liquidity and volume, suggests reduced market maker participation or deteriorating confidence in the redemption mechanism.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108358Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T174108699Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174112801Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T174055788Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "temporary liquidity reallocation to other venues",
        "reference equity price movement lag",
        "scheduled market maker maintenance"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "DexScreener data unavailable due to HTTP 429 rate limiting, leaving potential gaps in DEX-level transaction and pool data; txns_h1, txns_24h, pair_count, and dex_price_usd metrics are null.",
    "Baseline liquidity and volume data are incomplete with multiple null values from DexScreener-sourced snapshots, limiting trend confidence.",
    "The 11.7-hour baseline may not capture full daily trading patterns or longer-term structural dynamics.",
    "Top 5 holder concentration metric does not distinguish between liquidity pools, custodial accounts, and concentrated individual ownership, limiting interpretation of supply dynamics.",
    "No on-chain redemption or collateral data is available to assess the health of the tokenization backing mechanism.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M00NT5N1GGSW6DZS",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T17:43:37.824Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T17:44:09.559Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:99ca2782db81f038ccdbf91893bb6e6e97b3ea8e4cfc46f2ad77910164d9d158",
    "contentHash": "sha256:8e233994647aa57ddbf823ad813d0a38fdc117438473ca3289c42d5b20eff3bc"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-discount-widens-to-61bps-as-liquidity-contracts-and-volume-decline",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T17:44:10.094Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T17:44:10.094Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}