{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101M00898TKAN5B8Z2Q", "slug": "hoodx-discount-widens-to-56-9bps-as-liquidity-contracts-3-7-2026-08-14-1", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Discount Widens to 56.9bps as Liquidity Contracts 3.7%", "dek": "The Robinhood equity token trades at its deepest discount to reference price in 11.7 hours, with liquidity declining and concentration risk persisting at 94% top-holder share.", "summary": "HOODx, a tokenized Robinhood equity instrument, currently trades at $97.76 versus a reference price of $98.32, representing a -56.9 basis point discount that marks the widest divergence in the 24-snapshot baseline. Liquidity has contracted to $341,329 from $354,712 three hours prior, while 24-hour volume of $98,126 implies modest 0.29x turnover. Supply remains fixed at 597,392.604 tokens with extreme holder concentration at 94.0%. The premium has deteriorated from -8.6 bps observed 30 minutes ago and shows significant volatility across the baseline period, ranging from +36.1 bps to the current -56.9 bps.", "thesis": "The widening discount reflects deteriorating market conditions for the tokenized equity wrapper, with liquidity contraction amplifying price dislocation from the underlying reference asset.", "whyItMatters": "Persistent negative premiums and declining liquidity signal potential market-making stress or demand imbalance that could impair the token's utility as a price-efficient equity proxy.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "tokenized-equity", "HOOD", "xStock", "premium-divergence", "liquidity-risk", "concentration-risk", "market-structure" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-14T01:31:04.325Z", "end": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at -56.9bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -56.9, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -22.439877050320817 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60441428, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60441428, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $341,329 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 341329, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 353108 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9401073063057244, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9401073063057244 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $98,126 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 98126, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439236382", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:09.577Z", "dataHash": "sha256:87885aa1b2d1b107c6107161adc746ceef9cf4e85f95cf59624b53a1f961306d", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:09.954Z", "dataHash": "sha256:2db6929816cfe90e229248619ffdd14d0c36134a2bbdfc4813edd937466e7317", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T13:41:13.999Z", "dataHash": "sha256:93b049830b83ce6b7962bf1ef09690b44475f017099aa689900679f4ce25992b", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T13:40:55.803Z", "dataHash": "sha256:aa028c6c98226051634719eeafa336a72ffc531dda9608aa90e77c4be079553d", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a -56.9 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $98.3187, with the token priced at $97.7593.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.99, "falsifiers": [ "reference_price_usd updates to differ from $98.3187", "premium_bps recalculation yields different value" ] }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The current premium of -56.9 bps represents the widest discount observed across the 11.7-hour baseline period.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.95, "falsifiers": [ "baseline contains unobserved premium below -56.895261618906055 bps", "timestamp misalignment invalidates baseline span" ] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Liquidity has declined 3.7% from $354,712 to $341,329 over the past 30 minutes.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.9, "falsifiers": [ "prior liquidity_usd reading of 354712.33785565547 is erroneous", "current liquidity_usd measurement includes stale pool data" ] }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "The top 5 holders control 94.01% of circulating supply, indicating extreme concentration risk.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.98, "falsifiers": [ "top5_holder_share recalculation yields different value", "holder identification methodology changes" ] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "24-hour volume of $98,126 against $341,329 in liquidity implies 0.29x turnover, suggesting limited trading activity relative to pool depth.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.92, "falsifiers": [ "volume_24h_usd includes wash trading", "liquidity_usd is overstated due to double-counting" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The premium has exhibited high volatility across the baseline, ranging from +36.1 bps to -56.9 bps, suggesting unstable arbitrage conditions.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "baseline volatility is normal for the asset class", "observed range reflects data quality issues rather than genuine market movement" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The supply of 597,392.604 tokens has remained unchanged across all 24 baseline observations, indicating no minting or burning activity.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.99, "falsifiers": [ "supply_ui_amount changes in subsequent observations", "token contract permits unobserved supply adjustments" ] }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The contraction in liquidity concurrent with widening discount suggests market maker withdrawal or reduced arbitrage capital deployment.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109577Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T134109954Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134113999Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T134055803Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "liquidity decline is due to routine rebalancing rather than market maker exit", "discount widening is driven by reference price lag rather than token selling pressure" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.62, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.04, "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "DEX price data unavailable due to DexScreener API rate limiting, preventing cross-validation of Jupiter-sourced metrics.", "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) are null in current observation, limiting activity analysis.", "Pool count and pair count metrics unavailable, obscuring liquidity fragmentation assessment.", "Baseline liquidity data has gaps (null values) from DexScreener-sourced snapshots, reducing confidence in trend analysis.", "Single-source dependency on Jupiter for current liquidity and volume creates concentration risk in data integrity.", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01M0082RACRR70WRKY", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T13:44:02.040Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T13:44:47.156Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:57fb87173aa1bccd2d5e4c72ff038733387c71f8ac2c4c2e3ccc5a42f2bfe3d5", "contentHash": "sha256:a40987ce7ea609f72624438ab6d97b8011bd51dbf46c4a5b242c5856e0f5106e" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-discount-widens-to-56-9bps-as-liquidity-contracts-3-7-2026-08-14-1", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T13:44:47.699Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T13:44:47.699Z" }, "distribution": [] }