{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M03PH2GMV8ZS74CR",
  "slug": "crclx-trades-41-5bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-215126",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx trades +41.5bps above the CRCL reference price",
  "dek": "Token price diverges 41.5bps from the reference equity price.",
  "summary": "CRCLx trades at +41.5bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,457,799 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $304,160 implies 0.12x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
  "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 41.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
  "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "crclx",
    "solana",
    "market",
    "premium-divergence"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-15T09:51:07.015Z",
    "end": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +41.5bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 41.5,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 43.86907815792757
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.76557807,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.76557807,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,457,799 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 2457799,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 2468918
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5428681752993928,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5428681752993928
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $304,160 implies 0.12x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 304160,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439514833",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:02.558Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a80deb5c7b2986e002cb62a65b4bb47bc4d77c38b381e381bf592301349d46c5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:03.241Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:b72d6b22850da98364e217218042ab08238b28d06fd10b155775eef09b57abd5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:07.288Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:2e773608b631461b3c09008bee8e2ef4040dd77d0c978e7c32f3cdcabc76204c",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T21:50:55.391Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:53bc2f4d3608d8b0da542fe0508c6c8997363155aedaeb489a9e16d7d008598f",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +41.5bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.29499796815135 vs $71).",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,457,799 with $304,160 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.88
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215102558Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T215103241Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215107288Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T215055391Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.64,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.02,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
    "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M03PGFPKMGTEPEJN",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:22.512Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:26.320Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:a5411ab28cbd8a0dd446aa7e14f72bb1b4f9507da7100d2848758c88337c4e9c",
    "contentHash": "sha256:718fa24e51895c4e878d8ac91286b63a72049d5fb8540cd4aac5e2b795a89741"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-trades-41-5bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-215126",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:26.740Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T21:51:26.740Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}