{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M042HF93NG6E94QE",
  "slug": "crclx-trades-39bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-16-012122",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx trades +39bps above the CRCL reference price",
  "dek": "Token price diverges 39bps from the reference equity price.",
  "summary": "CRCLx trades at +39bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,015,317 across 23 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $179,612 implies 0.04x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
  "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 39bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
  "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "crclx",
    "solana",
    "market",
    "premium-divergence"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
    "end": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +39bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 39,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 37.31947543329375
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.76557807,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.76557807,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,015,317 across 23 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 5015317,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 5012893
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 54.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5441140382349138,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5441140382349138
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $179,612 implies 0.04x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 179612,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439545119",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.226Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:41b6bea6336f66f9b1790b8108990d18732e394a5bc024e8e8de3f513822c8e3",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.821Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:439d9ccb3ec36aad961c9ec0603799804efa5cff0287f2110569232f8eb48e51",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.955Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4708f804bcb7d5a48ec1d036d868f529b666d698e14c4825ff747eabb2dbeb74",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:02.986Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a8987f7e42c759a375003ea52239b086b7f1e2bf11a8d15b4f3fd7cb56b9669e",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.766 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +39bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.27671902870918 vs $71).",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.9
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $5,015,317 with $179,612 of 24h volume across 23 pools.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.88
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102226Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T012102821Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T012102955Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T012102986Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.88,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.88 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.02,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
    "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M042GW68JD0GTYT8",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:18.481Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "heuristic",
        "model": "deterministic-templates",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:22.321Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:fdbd25253198119ed0152456dcae7b653332e7c17f01696d4d630c5546763cc5",
    "contentHash": "sha256:a5615a8b319378090c0b33239f76d878a54063ebb93e1b9f3af763946412068e"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-trades-39bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-16-012122",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:22.723Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-16T01:21:22.723Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}