{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZZ43A42V1K4HV23",
  "slug": "crclx-premium-widens-to-77bps-as-price-gains-6-7-2026-08-14-031223",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx Premium Widens to 77bps as Price Gains 6.7%",
  "dek": "On-chain token trades at sustained premium to reference equity with stable liquidity and moderate velocity",
  "summary": "CRCLx trades at +76.86 basis points above its 75.01 USD reference price, a material expansion from the 11.5-hour baseline average of 8.92 bps. The 5.14M USD liquidity pool supported 4.01M USD in 24-hour volume (0.78x turnover) while the token appreciated 6.73%. Top 5 holders maintain 53.65% supply concentration.",
  "thesis": "The sustained premium expansion indicates structural demand or arbitrage friction rather than transient volatility.",
  "whyItMatters": "Persistent deviations from reference pricing signal potential market inefficiencies or unique value attribution for on-chain exposure that merit monitoring.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "premium",
    "liquidity",
    "arbitrage",
    "concentration",
    "velocity"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T15:11:03.944Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +76.9bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 76.9,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 8.918546197277863
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.77263712,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.77263712,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,136,583 across 28 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 5136583,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 5074228
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5365015608070833,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5365015608070833
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,005,558 implies 0.78x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 4005558,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439145207",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T03:10:59.511Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4a51a5e883b38c6336018ca88a27e9c8b7e7792478d78b184c82c61abfb8751b",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.082Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:27ff955b3481e25a9c74060fa539967b85f15470af4a447c8ba395154468f439",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.214Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:9dbafa057b2c7c0b25ff31d964341d2008c2beafd7a2b0a1bbed01c28de48e19",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:00.239Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a125bb449b101e6732325f85fe543a2b744a610a56f584cc6e6341324c442512",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at a premium of +76.85837235175856 basis points to the CRCL reference price of 75.01 USD.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The 4005558.37 USD 24-hour volume represents 0.78 times the 5136582.919999998 USD pooled liquidity, indicating moderate velocity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The premium has expanded materially from the 11.5-hour baseline average of 8.918546197277863 bps, marking the third consecutive hourly observation above 60 bps.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Sustained premium expansion suggests either structural demand for on-chain exposure or temporary friction in arbitrage mechanisms, rather than liquidity constraints.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps reverting below 20 bps",
        "liquidity_usd decreasing below 4000000 USD",
        "volume_24h_usd declining below 3000000 USD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The five largest accounts hold 0.5365015608070833 of supply, a concentration level stable throughout the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Token price appreciated 6.72973154178402 percent over 24 hours to 75.58651465101055 USD, while DEX pricing at 75.55 USD remains closely aligned.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821079.77263712 tokens, unchanged from prior observations.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031059511Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T031100082Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T031100214Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T031100239Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.71,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.71 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_failures",
        "contribution": -0.15,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) failed independent verification."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline period of 11.5 hours may not capture full market cycles",
    "Reference price source and update frequency not disclosed",
    "Top 5 holder composition (pools versus custodial) not distinguished",
    "Single-hour transaction sample may not represent sustained activity",
    "Arbitrage mechanism specifics and constraints are unknown",
    "No information on off-chain liquidity or CEX listings",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZZ40RTAQWNQSTCZ",
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        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T03:11:42.732Z"
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      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
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        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T03:12:22.905Z"
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    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:55be1d01e634a2eee025ad6ab9cb74c76593582bfecf33d91061fd651adf80a7",
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    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T03:12:23.682Z",
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}