{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZWPTNEP606HBCJS",
  "slug": "crclx-premium-widens-to-30bps-as-price-gains-11-on-concentrated-holdings",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx Premium Widens to 30bps as Price Gains 11% on Concentrated Holdings",
  "dek": "Tokenized equity derivative shows notable premium divergence to reference, with 53% of supply held by top five accounts and liquidity turnover at 0.8x.",
  "summary": "CRCLx trades at a 29.97bps premium to its reference, marking a notable increase from the 11.3-hour baseline average of 3.96bps. The token appreciated 11.12% over 24 hours with $3.97M volume against $4.97M liquidity. Top five holders control 53.24% of the 821,079.77 token supply, while hourly transactions have declined to 81.",
  "thesis": "The 30bps premium divergence signals sustained demand for on-chain exposure, amplified by concentrated holdings and moderate liquidity turnover.",
  "whyItMatters": "Premium volatility affects arbitrage efficiency and indicates structural demand shifts that could persist while large holder concentration creates execution risks.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "premium-divergence",
    "concentration-risk",
    "liquidity-analysis",
    "CRCLx"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T17:00:35.033Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +30bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 30,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 3.9635952614162435
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.77263836,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.77263836,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $4,971,621 across 30 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 4971621,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 4971621
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5323723445260745,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5323723445260745
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,969,212 implies 0.8x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3969212,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 438950947",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:40:59.279Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a560c5d50b90b25a8dc457be5f2dbb2899724684a748d2915d214a168124dd58",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.140Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:55f91834eb568c91051fa4d9a06e92dc8b8347af8bede60cdcdc67c8bbff28e9",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.147Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:178e57c90a3dc41fc89ea7f5b2282dc97230deae70195bbe5752ba9893eb3f80",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:00.183Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:4e68ebb38b9fba253a50e4d92fb3a34234f40987569329f4d7b94a8e954b85a4",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at a 29.970969249039634 basis point premium to the CRCL reference price.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $3,969,212.03 represents 0.80 times the current pooled liquidity of $4,971,620.84.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The current premium marks a notable departure from the 11.3-hour baseline, where the average premium was 3.9635952614162435 basis points.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 53.23723445260745% of the total circulating supply of 821,079.77263836 tokens.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The premium expansion reflects heightened demand for on-chain access to the reference asset rather than transient market noise.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Premium reverting to baseline levels without corresponding volume changes",
        "Reference asset exhibiting higher volatility than the token",
        "Sustained decrease in transaction activity despite premium elevation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Current hourly transaction count of 81 falls below the 11.3-hour baseline minimum of 106, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The token price appreciated 11.116582087174745% over the preceding 24-hour period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The concentrated ownership structure, with top five holders controlling 53.24% of supply, may contribute to price-premium volatility.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044059279Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T044100140Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T044100147Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T044100183Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.82,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.82 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline liquidity and volume data unavailable for most of the 11.3-hour window",
    "Top holder composition (pools vs custodial accounts) not distinguished in concentration metric",
    "Single hourly transaction snapshot may not capture full intraday pattern variability",
    "Reference price sourcing methodology and update frequency undisclosed",
    "No analysis of capital flows between top holder addresses",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZWPRV6SEB2TBHFM",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:46.376Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T04:41:59.077Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:daf45d6b5fc3d01c7d59619cce3527b235b27b890fe87a83d91a7cdf9ba125c4",
    "contentHash": "sha256:ce71414d85c97a45725eff25f1e85a261eab3984117d0a644f0d50cf4d2d5437"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-premium-widens-to-30bps-as-price-gains-11-on-concentrated-holdings",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T04:42:00.022Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T04:42:00.022Z"
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  "distribution": []
}