{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZXQEK42QC4S6TDB",
  "slug": "crclx-premium-stabilizes-at-38-6bps-as-liquidity-rises-10-2026-08-13-141",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx Premium Stabilizes at +38.6bps as Liquidity Rises 10%",
  "dek": "Token trades above reference price with $2.74M pooled liquidity and 1.32x turnover ratio, while top 5 holders retain 53.5% supply concentration.",
  "summary": "Circle xStock (CRCLx) currently trades at a +38.6 basis point premium to its reference price of $72.46, with token price at $72.74. Circulating supply remains stable at 821,079.77 tokens. DEX liquidity stands at $2.74M, representing a 10.3% increase from the recent baseline average. The 24-hour volume of $3.63M implies a 1.32x turnover ratio relative to pooled liquidity. The top five token accounts control 53.55% of supply, indicating significant concentration.",
  "thesis": "CRCLx exhibits moderate premium valuation with improved liquidity conditions, though supply concentration and premium volatility present ongoing market structure risks.",
  "whyItMatters": "The 10.3% liquidity increase improves tradability, but the 53.5% top-holder concentration and volatile premium history suggest potential for price impact from large holder movements and reference price tracking inefficiencies.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "CRCLx",
    "premium",
    "liquidity",
    "concentration",
    "turnover",
    "reference-price"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-13T02:10:59.812Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +38.6bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 38.6,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 32.75770603729632
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.77263836,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.77263836,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,739,522 across ? pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 2739522,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 2482801
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.5% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5354826338079843,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5354826338079843
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,626,690 implies 1.32x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 3626690,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439032966",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:02.467Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:90503c61b0748361e9f199077cbb3cd669ba697beda4168385aa0cbe93e3f6fb",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:03.268Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:0b0a91f543eac20b44fc9b17f607605ee31316187be2040bb9df22884bfca48c",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:07.344Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a658b53a7ab1eac55dbe29860f5da3b0f1d42f5679a4ef964abf7989ddf21a2d",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T14:10:55.859Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:c2ccb87c5ca76fda702c3637555beb7f29a355c7510800c1f5b9b2b168b11493",
      "reliability": "medium",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at a +38.6 basis point premium to the CRCL reference price of $72.46, with a token price of $72.74.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.99
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is stable at 821,079.77263836 tokens, showing no material change across the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.98
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.55% of total supply, indicating significant holder concentration.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.97
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "DEX liquidity totals $2,739,522.26, representing a 10.3% increase versus the baseline average of $2,482,800.93.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "The 24-hour volume of $3,626,689.62 implies a 1.32x turnover ratio relative to current pooled liquidity.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.96
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "Premium volatility has been extreme over the past 11.5 hours, ranging from -39.9bps to +374.4bps, with the current +38.6bps marking a moderation from recent highs.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The 3.82% 24-hour price change combined with elevated premium suggests potential market sentiment shift or temporary dislocation from reference valuation.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141102467Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T141103268Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141107344Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T141055859Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps dropping below 20bps",
        "price_change_24h_pct turning negative",
        "liquidity_usd declining by more than 5%"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.62,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.16,
        "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "source_outages",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.04,
        "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "txns_h1 and txns_24h metrics are unavailable, limiting activity analysis",
    "dex_price_usd is null; only reference price comparison is possible",
    "pair_count is missing, preventing assessment of market fragmentation",
    "Dexscreener data source failed (HTTP 429), creating single-source dependency on Jupiter",
    "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, insufficient for robust trend identification",
    "Pool composition and counterparty risk are unknown",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
    "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZXQCSB9YKJQM3NH",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
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        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T14:11:53.878Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T14:12:06.842Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:3eb874ba09dd2ab79cfc0ff6a231a38e3a96e4d640c7e3cedc0e492d4c5d5415",
    "contentHash": "sha256:57ab4ddee321fcdb4cdb212f8ef8b2083d01a92c6584840887f709894dd67cbf"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-premium-stabilizes-at-38-6bps-as-liquidity-rises-10-2026-08-13-141",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T14:12:07.426Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T14:12:07.426Z"
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  "distribution": []
}