{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101M00FK7RM19CS18W1",
  "slug": "crclx-premium-reaches-11-7-hour-high-at-109-8-basis-points-2026-08-14-15",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "CRCLx Premium Reaches 11.7-Hour High at 109.8 Basis Points",
  "dek": "Token trades at $72.27 versus $71.48 reference as concentration and turnover metrics show stability",
  "summary": "Circle xStock (CRCLx) reached a material premium of 109.8 basis points above its reference price, the highest observed in an 11.7-hour baseline period. The expansion coincides with elevated transaction activity and moderate liquidity turnover, while top-holder concentration remains stable at 53.7 percent.",
  "thesis": "The sustained premium expansion reflects increased on-chain demand without corresponding supply changes, suggesting market-driven price discovery rather than technical dislocation.",
  "whyItMatters": "Material premium divergences in tokenized equity products can indicate liquidity premiums, arbitrage constraints, or structural demand shifts that affect price efficiency and may persist until arbitrage mechanisms normalize the spread.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_crclx",
      "symbol": "CRCLx",
      "name": "Circle xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "CRCLx",
    "premium-divergence",
    "tokenized-equity",
    "liquidity",
    "concentration",
    "market-structure"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-14T03:40:58.248Z",
    "end": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at +109.8bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 109.8,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": 9.153632843911268
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 821079.77263151,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 821079.77263151,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,043,532 across 28 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 5043532,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 5077259
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.5370182120008647,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.5370182120008647
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,188,660 implies 0.83x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 4188660,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439255099",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:03.405Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:7ed697749140856b37cfc3fd5ac5e96e5408d85d317ce1ab9ab54124f152fec6",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.337Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:3583158998629cdffed49afd7199375e079e1a104d95d7c7dadb8c3e53256ab5",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.475Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:167b5f660bed59a02e974b9ada9d8666adbb6cb66f45f962303d67af4f8f2182",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:04.503Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:54227841a743b7c8b21b41800bc6c2e329892e1eb21b550063e3f1df3a0a4381",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7",
        "clm_8"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "CRCLx trades at a premium of 109.83 basis points to its reference price, marking the highest observed premium in the 11.7-hour baseline period.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The current premium translates to a token price of $72.27 versus a reference price of $71.48, representing a 1.1 percent markup.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "The premium has expanded by over 100 basis points from the baseline average of 9.15 bps, triggering a material divergence alert.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Hourly transaction count (1,314) remains elevated compared to early baseline periods (184-229 txns/h1), suggesting sustained trading interest during the premium expansion.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $4.19M represents 0.83x turnover against current liquidity of $5.04M, indicating moderate capital rotation.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "The premium expansion may signal structural demand for on-chain exposure or temporary dislocation, rather than supply shocks, as circulating supply has been constant at 821,079.77 tokens throughout the observation window.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "Supply mint/burn event",
        "Reference price feed error",
        "Liquidity pool manipulation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_8",
      "statement": "The positive 24-hour price change of +1.72 percent aligns with premium expansion, suggesting consistent upward repricing rather than a transient spike.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155103405Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T155104337Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T155104475Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T155104503Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.69,
    "band": "moderate",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.69 (moderate).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_failures",
        "contribution": -0.15,
        "explanation": "1 claim(s) failed independent verification."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.06,
        "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "material",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline period of 11.7 hours may not capture full intraday or multi-day premium cycles",
    "Null values in baseline liquidity and volume snapshots limit continuous trend analysis",
    "Reference price feed methodology and update frequency are not disclosed",
    "Top 5 holder composition (pools versus custodial) is not distinguished in the metric",
    "Arbitrage mechanism constraints and costs are not quantified in available data",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01M00FGG7PGCD9H18C",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T15:51:46.576Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openvecta",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-14T15:52:33.379Z"
      }
    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:52920c5f35f9a29a92287a77f39224cc05488cda1881a307cb04b0b530ca0ae6",
    "contentHash": "sha256:7c924616c174ad92f58bc15ee12d6365e55d3483a052763df93c86031981daf2"
  },
  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-premium-reaches-11-7-hour-high-at-109-8-basis-points-2026-08-14-15",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T15:52:34.324Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T15:52:34.324Z"
  },
  "distribution": []
}