{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "metis_0101KZWAVDH3A8J10D0N",
  "slug": "aaplx-trades-at-25-8bps-premium-with-87-5-supply-concentration-2026-08-1",
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "category": "market",
  "title": "AAPLx Trades at 25.8bps Premium with 87.5% Supply Concentration",
  "dek": "Tokenized Apple stock shows modest off-hours premium, high holder concentration, and 1.65x liquidity turnover in 24h volume.",
  "summary": "AAPLx trades at a 25.8 basis point premium to AAPL reference price at $302.60, with 24-hour volume of $422,935 representing 1.65x turnover of $256,067 pooled liquidity. Top 5 holders control 87.5% of the stable 154,268 token supply, while hourly transactions of 80 remain within baseline range.",
  "thesis": "The token exhibits moderate off-hours premium pricing and high supply concentration, suggesting limited arbitrage efficiency and constrained circulating float that may amplify price movements.",
  "whyItMatters": "High holder concentration and persistent premium indicate structural market inefficiencies that could affect price discovery and increase execution costs for larger trades, particularly during off-market hours.",
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "asset_aaplx",
      "symbol": "AAPLx",
      "name": "Apple xStock",
      "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
      "chain": "solana",
      "contractAddress": "XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "referenceTicker": "AAPL",
      "issuerId": "entity_backed"
    }
  ],
  "entities": [
    {
      "id": "entity_backed",
      "name": "Backed Assets",
      "type": "issuer"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "tokenized-equity",
    "AAPLx",
    "premium",
    "concentration",
    "liquidity",
    "off-hours"
  ],
  "timeWindow": {
    "start": "2026-08-12T14:40:41.223Z",
    "end": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
      "kind": "price_divergence",
      "statement": "AAPLx trades at +25.8bps versus the AAPL reference price.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "premium_bps",
        "value": 25.8,
        "unit": "bps",
        "baseline": -11.339984229897757
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
      "kind": "supply_change",
      "statement": "Circulating supply is 154,267.958 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "supply_ui_amount",
        "value": 154267.95764338,
        "unit": "tokens",
        "baseline": 154267.95764338,
        "delta": 0
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
      "kind": "liquidity_level",
      "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $256,067 across 26 pools.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "liquidity_usd",
        "value": 256067,
        "unit": "USD",
        "baseline": 267739
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
      "kind": "holder_concentration",
      "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 87.5% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
      "metric": {
        "name": "top5_account_share",
        "value": 0.8748181752243565,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "baseline": 0.8748181752243565
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
      "kind": "volume_context",
      "statement": "24h DEX volume of $422,935 implies 1.65x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
      "metric": {
        "name": "volume_24h_usd",
        "value": 422935,
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "AAPLx token supply at slot 438920860",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:09.744Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a46660c70e65e4fba9d529b279db5b00b91b870a1760e18774a3bcf0427f9443",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
      "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
      "sourceType": "onchain",
      "title": "AAPLx largest token accounts",
      "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp#holders",
      "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:23.866Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:a24899e569003bd0a780fb369eab086105627291c26af6a7e43179ae02370561",
      "reliability": "primary",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
      "sourceId": "dexscreener",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "AAPLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.345Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:929a0fbd3927ff922edf64c70cff290e96d632b29af8f3132907a2902ac10e6a",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z",
      "sourceId": "jupiter",
      "sourceType": "market",
      "title": "AAPLx token price and AAPL reference price",
      "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
      "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:24.448Z",
      "dataHash": "sha256:0168400d3c95c18e13033c68725fcad0e65c0cee458d3ddb7280d68b4e59a9bd",
      "reliability": "high",
      "supportsClaimIds": [
        "clm_1",
        "clm_2",
        "clm_3",
        "clm_4",
        "clm_5",
        "clm_6",
        "clm_7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "clm_1",
      "statement": "AAPLx trades at a 25.8 basis point premium to the AAPL reference price of $301.30, with a DEX price of $302.60.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_2",
      "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change is -0.84% despite trading at a premium to reference.",
      "type": "fact",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_3",
      "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $422,935 represents 1.65x turnover of current pooled liquidity of $256,067.",
      "type": "calculation",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_4",
      "statement": "Top 5 holders control 87.5% of the 154,268 token supply, indicating high concentration that may limit price discovery and increase volatility.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "top5_holder_share decreasing below 85%",
        "supply_ui_amount increasing by more than 10%"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_5",
      "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 80 is below the baseline maximum of 421 but within the observed range, suggesting moderate ongoing activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "txns_h1 sustained above 300 for 3+ consecutive hours"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_6",
      "statement": "The persistent premium during off-hours trading may reflect limited arbitrage capacity rather than fundamental demand.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "premium_bps reverting to negative territory",
        "liquidity_usd increasing above $290k"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clm_7",
      "statement": "Stable supply of 154,267.958 tokens with minimal change over the baseline period indicates no significant minting or burning activity.",
      "type": "hypothesis",
      "evidenceIds": [
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011109744Z",
        "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T011123866Z",
        "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T011124345Z",
        "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T011124448Z"
      ],
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "falsifiers": [
        "supply_ui_amount changing by more than 0.1% in a single observation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counterEvidence": [],
  "methodology": {
    "methods": [
      "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
      "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
      "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
      "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
    ],
    "transformations": [
      "UTC clock normalization",
      "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
    ],
    "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
    "exclusions": [
      "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
    ],
    "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
  },
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.82,
    "band": "high",
    "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.82 (high).",
    "factors": [
      {
        "name": "source_coverage",
        "contribution": 0.24,
        "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
      },
      {
        "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
      },
      {
        "name": "baseline_depth",
        "contribution": 0.08,
        "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
      },
      {
        "name": "verification_uncertainty",
        "contribution": -0.08,
        "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": "notable",
  "limitations": [
    "Baseline spans only 10.2 hours, limiting assessment of longer-term trends",
    "Top 5 holder composition (pools vs. custodial) is not distinguished",
    "Reference price source and update frequency are not specified",
    "No data on average trade size or slippage",
    "Arbitrage mechanism constraints are not quantified",
    "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
  ],
  "disclosures": [
    "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
    "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
  ],
  "relatedResearchIds": [],
  "provenance": {
    "runId": "run_01KZWAS25F2ZC6M7G7",
    "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
    "modelRecords": [
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        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
        "purpose": "synthesis",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T01:11:54.513Z"
      },
      {
        "provider": "openrouter.ai",
        "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash",
        "purpose": "verification",
        "promptVersion": "chat-1",
        "completedAt": "2026-08-13T01:12:40.973Z"
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    ],
    "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:8cf343d7cfc878543db1af3d5433ce768e0613d95f83c512292820718a1da9d1",
    "contentHash": "sha256:a7af01c7d3b498e711f237f4faf9ffdbc66414071cb9b4f6578a640ef2f83e12"
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  "publication": {
    "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/aaplx-trades-at-25-8bps-premium-with-87-5-supply-concentration-2026-08-1",
    "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T01:12:41.763Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T01:12:41.763Z"
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  "distribution": []
}