{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M04XZ8SH7AAZWSZP",
    "slug": "spcxx-trades-36-1bps-below-the-spcx-reference-price-2026-08-16-092046",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "SPCXx trades -36.1bps below the SPCX reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges -36.1bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "SPCXx trades at -36.1bps versus the SPCX reference price. Circulating supply is 559,998.355 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,270,482 across 30 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 85.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $197,812 implies 0.16x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -36.1bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_spcxx",
        "symbol": "SPCXx",
        "name": "SpaceX xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "spcxx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T21:21:00.300Z",
      "end": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -36.1bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -36.1,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -83.09604256792058
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.355 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 559998.35494508,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 559998.35494508,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $1,270,482 across 30 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 1270482,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 1276650
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8563929487683103,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8563929487683103
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $197,812 implies 0.16x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 197812,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439614313",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:27.621Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:65f1b4e834a5d1d037466b20330559e6992de3d085f3080b7f11f83a8e455fce",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.580Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:5864cca3c749ca381e69722a885cfe81d767547e368aa3f245ba6bda013dba43",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.610Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:a816a222d207b39c48f6ecafad7e3ad750650a7723f87bd9b565209f0979218f",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-16T09:20:28.636Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:df3d58901285eb54d3a2cf47ea146eeff6933a38e8427141dc8a83b01329fa1c",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "SPCXx circulating supply is 559,998.355 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -36.1bps versus the SPCX reference price ($140.05412253850685 vs $140.5615).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $1,270,482 with $197,812 of 24h volume across 30 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092027621Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-16T092028580Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-16T092028610Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-16T092028636Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.88,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.88 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M04XYQJ2CQ47KD4K",
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      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:e0d92be9602712d49081493d638f8a33a24385b2e3d94aa3b2f52e26373cf47d",
      "contentHash": "sha256:34731d2819259b8743aa84e152c8b922da243d88e63d828f8915a6eca1db52c9"
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    "distribution": []
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    "generatedAt": "2026-08-16T11:07:52.264Z"
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